For Giants Fans, Pessimism Reigns Supreme

August 11th, 2009

Maybe it’s because they haven’t won a championship in San Francisco.  Maybe it’s because of all the heartbreaking conclusions to seasons past.  Maybe it bugs me more, because I’m too optimistic.  (I even joked about the negativity just a few weeks ago.)  Whatever it is, Giants fans are, by and large, pessimistic, and the 2009 Giants deserve better.  The Giants play the game the right way, and has positioned itself for a pennant chase, despite mostly low expectations.

Sure, I’m as disgusted with Edgar Renteria’s at bats as anybody else.  Bengie Molina’s inability to take a pitch drives me nuts.  Randy Winn’s plate appearances can take away the optimism from even some of the most ardent fans.  Jonathan Sanchez’s inability to get out of fourth and fifth inning jams, despite great stuff, is maddening.  The Giants aren’t the only team with problems, however.  The Dodger bullpen and rotation depth has been frustrating for their fans.  Rockies fans have just about had it with Chris Iannetta, and Jason Hammel certainly doesn’t make them feel any better.  You think Cardinals fans enjoy Rick Ankiel, Todd Wellemeyer, and Kyle Lohse?

As said before, every contender in the National League is flawed.  There is no reason for Giants fans to feel worse about our problems than anybody else.  It’s okay to point out the various inabilities of the team when at the office or the bar, but I have a problem when a packed house, in what is the biggest game of the year to that point,  seems to lose all optimism because of one swing of the bat… in the fourth inning!  Understandably, this team hasn’t mounted many comebacks this year, but they did come back from two runs down eight days earlier, and from three runs down just five days earlier.

While perusing the McCovey Chronicles Game Thread last night, you’d think the game was over after the Matt Kemp double (which, some would say, it was).  There was even an “Open Depression Thread” started in the later innings with the team only down three runs.  While I don’t care as much about what is said by those who aren’t at the game, it does give you an idea of the pessimistic nature many, and maybe most, Giants fans have about this franchise.

The Giants are probably the underdog in this 2009 playoff chase.  However, that’s a major reason why they the fans to give them that extra adrenaline.  Think of the 2007 Warriors upset of Dallas.  The Warriors were the underdog, and it might have been a little hyperbole, but the players did say they couldn’t have done it without the fans.  For that series, the Dubs had the greatest home-court advantage the NBA had seen in the last ten years.  The Giants have a lot of these same types of fans, who try to get the crowd riled up.  The problem is for every 7,000 loud die-hards, there are about 20,000 fans who are waiting to jump at the first sign of trouble.

All I ask, as a die-hard Giants fan, is for all of you who go to every game, or just go once in a while, to throw total support this team’s way for these final 21 home games.  As an underdog, this team needs it more than others.  Sure, the offense will be frustrating, but when we groan about it, we’re not filling in the Giants players on anything they don’t know.  In a baseball world that has been obsessed with home runs, this team is still refreshing because they play solid defense and thrive on good pitching.  Not to mention, this is still a mostly young team, that is going to need our full support for the next several seasons, when they are consistently in pennant races.  So why not cheer as if we’re starting our rebuilding success a year early?  After all, whether your optimistic or pessimistic, as die-hard fans, we’re going to be equally disappointed if this team misses the playoffs, right?               (more…)

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Can the Comcast Obsession with Barry Bonds Please End?

August 5th, 2009

Greg Papa does a great job on Chronicle Live and on Giants Pregame shows, but this never-ending Barry Bonds discussion needs to cease… NOW.  Some New York writer does a piece on the loose Giants clubhouse minus Bonds, and Comcast needs to interview the writer on the Pregame Show and discuss it on Chronicle Live?  Seriously, is this really news?  I’m pretty sure Bonds hasn’t played a game in a Giants uniform in almost two years.   

Of course, it doesn’t get any better when idiots call Chronicle Live suggesting the Giants need to sign Bonds.  Why is it the people with no clue, are always the ones who have the guts to call and give their uninformed, misguided opinion? 

Anyone that thinks Bonds would give the Giants a huge upgrade is out of their minds.  (I can’t believe I’m actually going to break this down.)  Clubhouse chemistry talk aside, there is little chance he could be the same hitter when he left.  A great deal of Bonds’ success in his last couple of seasons was the walks (132 in 2007).  Pitchers wouldn’t be dancing around Bonds as they did then.  Why would you pitch around a hitter who hasn’t played in two years, is 45, and is smaller than he was two years ago? 

Of course, there is also the defense, where Bonds was one of the worst defensive leftfielders in the game (which is saying something because there are a lot of bad ones).  I don’t think his range has improved since he left the game and moved into his mid 40’s. 

The real reason Bonds’ name gets brought up on Comcast is because TV heads are mostly void of original thought.  They love discussing the same subject over and over again.  It’s why we can’t get away from Brett Favre, Michael Vick, and Jon and Kate.  I’m sure it won’t be the last time we see Bonds discussed on Comcast.  Personally, I’d like to hear more about players that are actually on this 2009 Giants team.               

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Freddy Sanchez is at Home in the NL West

August 3rd, 2009

While I stand by my argument that the Giants gave up too much for Freddy Sanchez, and should have used Tim Alderson as trade bait for a hitter with more pop, my entire support is thrown his way now that he’s a Giant.  Yesterday, Mike Krukow made mention of how Sanchez told him that he enjoys hitting in the NL West parks because of their enormous outfields.  It certainly makes sense for a line-drive hitter, such as Sanchez.

Brian Sabean should have told us this when he made the trade, instead of reminding us that Sanchez was a “professional hitter”.  When you keep telling us that Sanchez is a “professional hitter”, all you’re doing is reminding us that most of our team is filled with “unprofessional hitters”.  (Even if it’s true, we don’t need to be reminded.)  If Sabean had told me that Sanchez owns the Dodgers and Rockies, I still wouldn’t have agreed with the price tag, but I would have definitely felt a little better about the deal.

When you look into the numbers, Sanchez is very comfortable against the Giants competition in the NL West, with the exception of the Padres. (Of course, he fits right in since the Giants can’t win in San Diego anyway.)

OPPONENT AVERAGE OPS BALLPARK AVERAGE OPS
LAD .342 .827 Dodger .333 .787
COL .373 .948 Coors .403 1.028
ARZ .327 .829 Chase .327 .826
SD .234 .575 PETCO .250 .628

As for the Giants, he was a career .340, .841 OPS hitter against, and the ballpark talk wasn’t just talk.  Sanchez loves AT&T to the tune of a .378 batting average and .929 OPS.  It’s those fantastic OPS numbers against NL West opposition that are very encouraging.  WCB did say that this trade could look good if Sanchez posts an OPS over .800 in these final couple of months.

Considering that 34 of the final 57 games (59.6%) are against NL West opponents, that .800+ OPS for Sanchez suddenly seems very possible.  With all of the heavy intra-division scheduling during the regular season (44.4%), maybe Sanchez’s numbers could actually improve slightly on his Pittsburgh stats.  One things for sure:  If he beats up on L.A. and Colorado this season, he’ll fit in very quickly.

Now about that defense:

I’m going to give Sanchez the benefit of the doubt on his defense because his metrics (tied for fifth-best among all second basemen) are so solid.  However, Giants fans that saw him yesterday and the three games the Giants played in Pittsburgh have seen some very shaky fielding from Sanchez.

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49ers Shouldn’t Budge in Crabtree Negotiations

July 31st, 2009

I’m as excited as anyone else when it comes to Michael Crabtree’s potential, and the chance that he becomes an elite NFL receiver.  However, when you consider his agent, Eugene Parker, and his ridiculous demands that Crabtree should be paid like a top three pick, the Niners should wait this out. 

There shouldn’t be much of a sense of urgency on the team’s part because this is the deepest receiving corps the 49ers have had in several years.  With Isaac Bruce and Josh Morgan expected to be the starters, plus capable starters such as Brandon Jones, Arnaz Battle, and Jason Hill all waiting in the wings, Crabtree is more of a luxury than a need in 2009.  Sure, Crabtree has the highest upside of any 49er receiver and still has potential for a big-time rookie season (such as the player he’s been most often compared to, Anquan Boldin), but it’s very unlikely for a receiver to blow anyone’s socks off in their initial season.  (Did I just use the phrase, “blow anyone’s socks off”?  I think I’m the first person under the age of 70 to use that phrase.)  It’s even more unlikely since he has such a long ways to go on the depth chart.  

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Alderson Should Have Been Part of Something Bigger

July 30th, 2009

Obviously, WCB was never that enamored with Freddy Sanchez.  Don’t get me wrong.  He’s a solid player and, assuming he gets healthy, clearly makes the Giants better in 2009.  But, yesterday, we posted a couple of alternatives to acquiring Sanchez for fear of the organization giving up too much for a 31-year old who currently has an MCL sprain.  Still, no one, in even our wildest of nightmares, foresaw one of Baseball America’s top 50 prospects, Tim Alderson, being included in a Sanchez trade.  (Thanks to the Warriors brass, as noted below, this wasn’t the worst trade of the day in the Bay Area.)  It was not too long ago that Sabean was discussing the Giants reluctance to part with their best prospects.  My most accounts, Alderson was one of the top four, if not top three prospects, in the organization. 

So, what changed?  The Twins interest in Sanchez?  The eight runs in three games against Pittsburgh?  Ryan Klesko and Edgardo Alfonzo refusing to come out of retirement?     

Whatever it was, this trade has compromised the 2010 flexibility for the organization.  This team likely still needs a middle-of-the-order hitter, and now that hitter is going to have to be an outfielder.  With Ryan Garko and Travis Ishikawa, first base is tied down next year.  Sanchez’s 2010 option likely holds down second base.  Edgar Renteria and Pablo Sandoval will be the left side of the infield, and Buster Posey will likely be the team’s everyday catcher at some point in 2010.  The only good power-hitting outfield options (who don’t kill you defensively) on the free-agent market are Matt Holliday and Jason Bay.  Whoever acquires those two, will likely have to overpay.         

That’s why Alderson was valuable, and not untouchable.  (To give you an idea about Alderson’s value:  He was more highly regarded than any of the players acquired by the Indians in the Cliff Lee deal.)  I always envisioned Alderson as someone who could be packaged with other prospects for a proven power-hitter.  Either now, or in the next year.  In this space last week, I suggested that I wouldn’t have been disappointed if the Giants organized a deal around Alderson and Conor Gillaspie for someone like Holliday.  Or even perhaps Victor Martinez.  If the Indians were so interested in Scott Barnes, couldn’t the Giants work a package around Alderson, Barnes and someone else for middle-of-the-order stud like Martinez?  Martinez would certainly be a better fit for this team than the combination of Garko and Sanchez.   

It’s pretty simple really.  Sports trades are about value.  Sanchez’s value is not great considering his $8 million option for next season that is likely to kick in once he reaches 600 plate appearances.  Even if he doesn’t reach those plate appearances, the Giants could still pick up his option.  And, if they don’t pick up the option?  The Giants would risk losing Sanchez to free-agency and receive zero draft-pick compensation.  The Pirates were dealing with these same parameters, which is why they were so aggressive in moving the second baseman. 

This deal isn’t about whether Alderson will ever be a top-notch pitcher, or even a serviceable starter.  It’s about forfeiting the opportunity to use Alderson, either now or in the next year, as a piece to something bigger and better.   A hitter who may be the difference between the Giants being a playoff contender and a championship contender.   

Instead, we settle for Sanchez.  He’s a nice player, as an above-average offensive second baseman who also happens to field well.  It’s not a horrible trade because it clearly makes the Giants better this year.  But, it is a bad one because a significant player was dealt for one who isn’t a big difference-maker.  It’s a bad one because the Giants didn’t even receive a lesser prospect in return (The Phillies got Ben Francisco).  It’s a bad one because the Giants didn’t even force the Pirates to pay any of Sanchez’s salary.  Now, Sabean and Giants fans have to hope that Sanchez puts together a stellar couple of months (maybe an OPS over .800) that leads the Giants into the playoffs and beyond.  Even then, we’ll still probably be asking questions about whether this would have been a playoff team with or without Sanchez anyway.         

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Two Freddy Sanchez Alternatives

July 29th, 2009

Despite Eugenio Velez’s breakthrough performance last night, we all know the Giants could still use a second baseman.  (Of course, if it were up to me, Kevin Frandsen would have had around 250 at bats by now, so we would know for sure about his potential one way or the other… but I digress.)  I’ve cooled on Freddy Sanchez because I’m not particularly enthused about his $8 million salary for next year, plus the fact that he’s currently banged up.  (As noted at Inside Baggs, the Giants may be better served avoiding Sanchez.)    The Giants, in a sense, have already locked themselves into first base for 2010, with Ryan Garko and Travis Ishikawa likely manning the position.  A Sanchez trade would not only entail dealing a good prospect or two, but also locking up another position for 2010.  With Edgar Renteria signed for next year, plus the Panda surely handling third base, a Sanchez trade would mean the Giants will have zero free-agent infield options this offseason.  That’s why I suggest these two alternatives:

1. Marco Scutaro – Scutaro has been a shortstop this entire season, but has played multiple positions in his career, including 306 games at second base.  He’s a slightly above-average defender at second (+0.1 UZR/150), and has been an excellent defender at shortstop this year.  In fact, if you factor in his defense, along with his excellent batting eye, he has been the tenth most valuable position-player in baseball this year (4.1 WAR).  Of course, a lot of this has to do with Scutaro having a career year at age 33.  Still, people have expected his numbers to drop off all season, yet he is hitting .349 with a .936 OPS in July.  One of the most frustrating aspects of being a Giants fan is not only watching the team struggle at the plate, but the refusal to draw a walk.  Scutaro works the count beautifully and has 62 walks this year, compared to 48 strikeouts. 

I have no idea what the asking price is, but I’d rather have Scutaro than Sanchez.  Scutaro’s .294 AVG/.388 OBA/.469 SLG is something that could be very valuable atop the Giants lineup.  (Oh yeah, did I mention he could lead off?)  Plus, he’s put up these numbers in a superior league, and only makes $1.1 million this year.  If the Giants don’t re-sign him, they also would be looking at receiving solid competition (likely a first-round pick) in the offseason.  Giving up a solid prospect is easier to do if the team knows they’ll be receiving one in return after a two-month rental.                    

And, considering, Renteria is banged up and needing offseason surgery, Scutaro gives the Giants a very reliable shortstop option as well.

2. Adam Kennedy – I’m not nearly as high on Kennedy, but think he should be had at a cheap price (of course, I’d also like to see the Giants inquire about Justin Duchscherer in a similar deal).  At a 1.5 WAR, Kennedy has been more valuable than Dan Uggla this year, mostly because he’s not an abortion defensively like Uggla.  His .295/.349/.425 (and .341 wOBA) numbers are clearly above average for a second baseman.  Despite missing three weeks this year, his 7 HR’s and 37 RBI’s are also very solid.   

Defensively, he’s been very up and down the last couple of years, including a worrisome (-10.2/UZR 150) this season.  Still, he was a +21.8 at second base last year, and is a career +8.4 UZR/150 at second.  I trust those numbers more than his smaller sample size for this year. 

Kennedy is on a $4 million salary for this year and, like Scutaro, ticketed for free agency after the season.  The A’s shouldn’t be asking for much, considering they would be happy to move his salary.  I’d rather give up less in prospects for two months of Kennedy at a pro-rated $1.4 million, than deal more prospects for 8 months of Freddy Sanchez at a combined $10+ million for 2009 and 2010.  

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Trade for Garko: Tough Call, but Maybe a Necessary Risk

July 28th, 2009

I like Grant’s view on McCovey Chronicles because he doesn’t feel comfortable offering an opinion on the Ryan Garko trade.  I was almost in the same boat last night because I wouldn’t have been terribly disappointed if Brian Sabean didn’t make a move.  After further review, I see this as a necessary risk even though I like Scott Barnes.  A 21-year old lefthander (who is 12-3 with a 2.85 ERA in San Jose) that strikes out over a batter an inning is not exactly easy to find.  Plus, he doesn’t walk many guys.  The Giants perhaps needed to take a chance, though.  They do so on someone who could have very good value if he gets hot in the final couple of months.

Garko is a career .860 OPS hitter after the All-Star break.  That’s pretty damn good!  We’re definitely not talking about Shea Hillenbrand here.  Plus, Garko is under control for the next three seasons, as he’s arbitration eligible through 2012.  (That’s why the Giants had to give up more to get Garko than the free-agent eligible Adam LaRoche.)  There’s also the argument that American League players are immediately better players when they come to the National League.  This is often the case (look at freaking Casey Blake!), although if you’re really curious, Garko’s numbers (29 for 129 with 4 HR’s) are not that impressive against the NL in his career.  If you’re really reaching for another positive, Garko is a good postseason hitter in a very limited sample size (.314 avg, .899 OPS in 39 PA’s).

Breaking down the Garko/Travis Ishikawa comparison, you’ll find that Garko over the course of the season is slightly more valuable than Ishikawa.  He might make the Giants a half of a win better in the second half of the season.

BREAKDOWN

GARKO

ISHIKAWA

AGE 28 25
CAREER AVG. .283 .272
CAREER OPS .805 .746
CAREER wOBA .352 .324
vs. RHP .270 AVG
.768 OPS
.269 AVG
.753 OPS
VS. LHP .318 AVG
.906 OPS
.300 AVG
.677 OPS
UZR/150 GAMES -4.0 +10.0
2009 WAR 1.3 0.9

A half of a win doesn’t sound like much, but these things (WAR- Wins Above Replacement Player) do have a margin for error.  (more…)

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All-Star Game is an Example of Fielding Importance in Baseball

July 15th, 2009

Any Giants fan watching last night’s game might have been a little frustrated by the lack of defense played behind Tim Lincecum in the opening inning.  First, Yadier Molina started what should have been a double play, only David Wright was not in proper position and unleashed a wild throw to first.  Then, normally reliable Albert Pujols made an error in the same inning.  Later in the game, we saw a misplay in left by Justin Upton (usually a really good rightfielder) on a game-changing Curtis Granderson triple, and a fantastic play by Carl Crawford to take away a home run from Brad Hawpe.

I found it refreshing that both good and bad fielding was on display last night because this is a time in baseball where the importance of defense is analyzed more by fans than it ever has been before.  Thanks to fantastic websites like FanGraphs, we can measure the true value of certain players and their defensive metrics.  Any general manager, like Kansas City’s Dayton Moore, who isn’t using defensive metrics in their analysis is doing their team’s fans a major disservice.

For example, a lot of supposed baseball experts, who have no idea what FanGraphs is, will tell you that power-hitters Adam Dunn and Jermaine Dye would be major upgrades to the Giants.  However, when you dig deep into the overall analysis (the UZR numbers), you’ll find that they are awful defensively.  Randy Winn, thanks to his defensive prowess, is just as valuable, if not more so, than Dunn and Dye even though Winn doesn’t post the sexy home run and RBI numbers.

This season, we have listened to dopes like John Kruk, who are so surprised about the success of teams like the Giants, Mariners, Rangers, and Tigers.  When you look at the UZR team stats, however, you’ll find that the Giants are the fourth best fielding team in baseball, while the Mariners are second, the Tigers are fifth, and the Rangers are seventh.  The 2008 UZR’s show that three of the final four participants (Rays, Phillies, Red Sox) were also among the top four defensive teams in the league during last year’s regular season.  Defense counts and the numbers prove it.

Fielding ratings aren’t the only important statistics in baseball, but they may be the most undervalued and underutilized.  The Giants, and any other contending team, should keep defense in mind as this year’s trading deadline approaches.  Because any team that gets Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye to roam their outfield could be in for a rude surprise.

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Revolving 2B Door, and Sanchez Stinks Again

June 17th, 2009

One of the reasons Clint Hurdle was fired in Colorado was because he couldn’t stick to an everyday lineup.  He was constantly moving guys around in the order and in the field.  He almost ruined big-time prospect Ian Stewart because of the constant position and lineup changes.  And Hurdle played approximately 137 players at second base, including Stewart, over the last season plus.  Jim Tracy, meanwhile, has stuck with Clint Barmes, and Barmes and the team have played better since.  I’m not saying that is the key to the Rockies improved play, because they were a very underachieving team as a whole.  It just helps to have some kind of stability.  

I bring it up because Bruce Bochy is on his way to playing about 87 guys at second base this year.  Here’s hoping that Kevin Frandsen (sorry, no faith in Matt Downs) is called up on Monday, when he’s eligible, and that Bochy throws him out there everyday until the end of July… at least.  Then, the Giants will have a better idea of what to do when the trade deadline hits.  Like a lot of fans, I was hoping Frandsen would win the job out of spring training.  I was then pleasantly surprised for a moment when Burriss started hitting okay (with zero power).  With the 0-for-27 slump, Burriss also hasn’t even been that good defensively, which means a change had to be made.  Frandsen obviously doesn’t embarrass himself defensively since the team is willing to play him at shortstop. 

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The A’s-Giants World Series: Something We’ll Probably Never See Again

June 12th, 2009

It is, of course, the 20 year anniversary of the only time the San Francisco Giants and Oakland A’s ever met in the Fall Classic.  There’s been a lot of focus this week on Chronicle Live commemorating that Bay Bridge World Series, and remembering the earthquake that was such a part of the Series.  Before the game tomorrow, the Giants will honor their 1989 pennant winning team.  

I bring all of this up because that A’s-Giants World Series we witnessed 20 years ago is something that is very unlikely to happen again, at least in most of our lifetimes.  All we have to do is look at history and find out just how rare it is to see a local, natural rivalry championship matchup such as this one. 

The Dodgers and Angels have shared Southern California for almost 50 years and have never come close to meeting in the World Series.  The Cubs and White Sox met in the World Series once… 103 years ago.  The Yankees and Mets have played in New York together for 47 years and have only met once (2000).  And that’s despite both teams usually having top five payrolls for the last decade.  The Royals and Cardinals have shared Missouri for 40 years, and have met once (1985).  Ohio rivals Cleveland and Cincinnati have never met in the World Series despite having over 100 years of history.   

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