August 14th, 2009
Of course, we should never read too much into preseason games. Two years ago, when the Niners hosted the Broncos in the preseason, Alex Smith looked pretty good, and that very regular season was remembered for Smith’s struggles, shoulder injury, and the horribly failed experiment of Jim Hostler as offensive coordinator. Having said that, what we know of Mike Nolan as a defensive coach, is that he had a goal to always shut down the running game early. This should create opportunities in the passing game.
Even though he was an awful head coach, Nolan’s idea to shut down the opposing running game early was a good idea. The problem was that his offense spent such little time on the field, his defense eventually became tired, and would give up a lot of rushing yards in the second half. Nolan’s philosophy also exposed areas in his pass defense.
As the Broncos defensive coordinator, we have to believe that Nolan will be looking to stack the line of scrimmage to stop the 49ers ground attack. He might have a good opportunity to do so considering the Jimmy Raye led 49er attack so desperately wants to establish a ground game this year, and also because Frank Gore won’t play. In Denver, there is so much pessimism regarding the Broncos defense, because of their terrible performance a year ago (3rd worst in the NFL in points allowed), there is no doubt that Nolan has motivation to restore fans’ faith in the team. Nolan also wants his defense to feel better about themselves. I doubt another defense in the NFL has gone through as much criticism and scrutiny as the Broncos defense has in the last year. Stopping the run, and forcing the Niners to beat them through the air, may be the best possible way for Nolan to restore his players’ confidence.
For these reasons, I’m not going to go overboard if the Niners tear up the Broncos pass defense tonight, however, there would be some (emphasize on “some”) cause for concern if Shaun Hill and/or Alex Smith aren’t effective throwing the ball. This is still a Broncos defense that is very short on talent. Former Niner Ronnie Fields is probably Denver’s best defensive lineman (as a nose tackle), and we know that Fields would have trouble making the 49ers team this year. (And, it’s not like the Niners have great defensive lineman on their roster.) For all the struggles the Niners have in the pass-rush department, the Broncos have more problems when it comes to finding true pass-rushers in their 3-4 defense. If you factor in the Broncos are trying to work in eight new starters on defense, they obviously should have some issues establishing cohesiveness.
Putting all of this together, Hill and Smith should have success throwing the ball tonight even though this is the first preseason game under a new coordinator. If they do throw the ball well, it won’t mean the Niners will have a good offense. If they don’t move the ball, however, we’re going to have some definite questions heading into the next couple of preseason games.
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Categories: San Francisco 49ers |
Tags: 49ers, A's, Alex Smith, Broncos, Chaz Schilens, Darren McFadden, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Frank Gore, Giants, Gina Carano, Isaac Bruce, JaMarcus Russell, Jimmy Raye, Michael Crabtree, Michael Vick, Mike Nolan, Nomar Garciaparra, Pablo Sandoval, Raiders, Ron Wotus, Ronnie Fields, Shaun Hill, Tim Lincecum | No Comments
July 29th, 2009
Despite Eugenio Velez’s breakthrough performance last night, we all know the Giants could still use a second baseman. (Of course, if it were up to me, Kevin Frandsen would have had around 250 at bats by now, so we would know for sure about his potential one way or the other… but I digress.) I’ve cooled on Freddy Sanchez because I’m not particularly enthused about his $8 million salary for next year, plus the fact that he’s currently banged up. (As noted at Inside Baggs, the Giants may be better served avoiding Sanchez.) The Giants, in a sense, have already locked themselves into first base for 2010, with Ryan Garko and Travis Ishikawa likely manning the position. A Sanchez trade would not only entail dealing a good prospect or two, but also locking up another position for 2010. With Edgar Renteria signed for next year, plus the Panda surely handling third base, a Sanchez trade would mean the Giants will have zero free-agent infield options this offseason. That’s why I suggest these two alternatives:
1. Marco Scutaro – Scutaro has been a shortstop this entire season, but has played multiple positions in his career, including 306 games at second base. He’s a slightly above-average defender at second (+0.1 UZR/150), and has been an excellent defender at shortstop this year. In fact, if you factor in his defense, along with his excellent batting eye, he has been the tenth most valuable position-player in baseball this year (4.1 WAR). Of course, a lot of this has to do with Scutaro having a career year at age 33. Still, people have expected his numbers to drop off all season, yet he is hitting .349 with a .936 OPS in July. One of the most frustrating aspects of being a Giants fan is not only watching the team struggle at the plate, but the refusal to draw a walk. Scutaro works the count beautifully and has 62 walks this year, compared to 48 strikeouts.
I have no idea what the asking price is, but I’d rather have Scutaro than Sanchez. Scutaro’s .294 AVG/.388 OBA/.469 SLG is something that could be very valuable atop the Giants lineup. (Oh yeah, did I mention he could lead off?) Plus, he’s put up these numbers in a superior league, and only makes $1.1 million this year. If the Giants don’t re-sign him, they also would be looking at receiving solid competition (likely a first-round pick) in the offseason. Giving up a solid prospect is easier to do if the team knows they’ll be receiving one in return after a two-month rental.
And, considering, Renteria is banged up and needing offseason surgery, Scutaro gives the Giants a very reliable shortstop option as well.
2. Adam Kennedy – I’m not nearly as high on Kennedy, but think he should be had at a cheap price (of course, I’d also like to see the Giants inquire about Justin Duchscherer in a similar deal). At a 1.5 WAR, Kennedy has been more valuable than Dan Uggla this year, mostly because he’s not an abortion defensively like Uggla. His .295/.349/.425 (and .341 wOBA) numbers are clearly above average for a second baseman. Despite missing three weeks this year, his 7 HR’s and 37 RBI’s are also very solid.
Defensively, he’s been very up and down the last couple of years, including a worrisome (-10.2/UZR 150) this season. Still, he was a +21.8 at second base last year, and is a career +8.4 UZR/150 at second. I trust those numbers more than his smaller sample size for this year.
Kennedy is on a $4 million salary for this year and, like Scutaro, ticketed for free agency after the season. The A’s shouldn’t be asking for much, considering they would be happy to move his salary. I’d rather give up less in prospects for two months of Kennedy at a pro-rated $1.4 million, than deal more prospects for 8 months of Freddy Sanchez at a combined $10+ million for 2009 and 2010.
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Categories: San Francisco Giants |
Tags: 49ers, A's, Adam Kennedy, Brett Favre, Cal, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Edgar Renteria, Eugenio Velez, Freddy Sanchez, Giants, Jeff Garcia, Jeff Tedford, Marco Scutaro, Michael Crabtree, Michael Vick, Mike Singletary, Rajai Davis, Randy Johnson, Ryan Garko, Scott Hairston, Sean Gallagher, Serena Williams, Tommy Everidge, Venus Williams | No Comments
July 21st, 2009
I love Rich Aurilia and what he’s done for the Giants organization. I loved his unexplainable 37-homer season in 2001. I enjoy his team-first attitude and the fact that being a Giant means something to him. At some point, however, that only goes so far. The Giants have to let go of Aurilia. He’s not a major leaguer anymore.
Most of the season, the 37-year old Aurilia has stolen at bats from younger players who are more deserving. In his 116 plate appearances, Aurilia has struck out 22 times and he’s produced an awful .544 OPS and a .240 wOBA (.340 wOBA is average, so .240 is terrible). Aurilia is barely hanging on to a job, so I can somewhat understand him blaming his poor performance on limited at bats. But, that’s not the case. Aurilia is old, and he is just a bad hitter. I don’t expect him to admit it, but the Giants are the ones who have to admit these shortcomings.
Defensively, Aurilia does a pretty good job. He hasn’t played enough to really analyze it, but the UZR numbers on FanGraphs say that Aurilia has been slightly above average at first and third base. However, I think we’ve seen enough of John Bowker to suggest that he can be okay at first base. He certainly looks a lot more comfortable there than he did a year ago. Bowker would be a downgrade defensively from Aurilia, but he is obviously more capable of bigger things offensively.
Still, Bowker will probably be the one to go, when the Giants bring up Ryan Sadowski for today’s start. It’s a shame because I think the 2009 Giants should have been about getting as much at bats possible for the unknowns such as Bowker, Travis Ishikawa, Kevin Frandsen, and Nate Schierholtz. The team has already failed to give Frandsen many opportunities. Now, I worry, that the 2009 handling of Bowker will be go down as a missed opportunity. When this season is over, we likely won’t know much more about Bowker’s major-league potential than we did when the season began. And, it will mostly because of the team’s loyalty to an old, unproductive hitter like Aurilia.
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Categories: Uncategorized |
Tags: 49ers, A's, Aaron Rowand, Buster Posey, Giants, Jason Giambi, John Bowker, Kevin Frandsen, Matt Holliday, Michael Crabtree, Michael Vick, Nate Schierholtz, Raiders, Rich Aurilia, Rod Woodson, Ronny Turiaf, Ryan Sadowski, Sergio Romo, Tim Lincecum, Tom Watson, Travis Ishikawa, Warriors | No Comments
June 9th, 2009
There’s no question that the A’s and Giants are organizationally short in position players, but that doesn’t mean they should spend their first-round picks on position players. The general consensus is that any non-pitcher, other than North Carolina’s Dustin Ackley, taken in the Top 10-15 would be a reach. Considering Ackley won’t make it out of the top five, the Giants and A’s should both draft pitching.
In the Giants case, that likely means high school lefthander Tyler Matzek from Mission Viejo. I’m not an expert by any means, but supposedly, Matzek throws hard and has very good command for a kid his age. Obviously, it sounds a lot like Madison Bumgarner. As for the A’s, based on where players will fall, they should probably draft a college pitcher, such as Arizona State lefty Mike Leake, North Carolina’s Alex White, or Missouri’s Kyle Gibson.
You always draft the best player because trades can always be made down the road. If the A’s really need a good position player in the offseason, there will be teams banging down their door asking about Vin Mazzaro, Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, and maybe even Josh Outman, with the season he is having. There are ALWAYS many teams that need pitching. Think about contenders such as the Yankees, Mets, Brewers, and Dodgers. They are all inquiring about pitching. As long as there is that kind of demand, there is more reason to stockpile your system with pitching. They don’t want to trade him, but the Giants could receive a pretty good position player for Bumgarner. Pitching can always be traded for good hitters. That’s why you can never have enough arms.
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Categories: Oakland A's, San Francisco Giants |
Tags: 49ers, A's, Aaron Cunningham, Adam Jones, Alex Smith, Andres Torres, Aubrayo Franklin, Barry Bonds, Bengie Molina, Brett Anderson, Brett Jackson, Bryan Anger, Cal, Charlie Frye, Daric Barton, Dashon Goldson, Drew Storen, Dustin Ackley, Giants, JaMarcus Russell, Jennifer Azzi, Jerry Jones, Josh Outman, Justin Smoak, Kentwan Balmer, Kyle Gibson, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Michael Vick, Mike Leake, Mike Singletary, Nnamdi Asomugha, Pau Gasol, Raiders, Randy Johnson, Rich Aurilia, Stanford, Stephen Strasburg, Tiger Woods, Tim Lincecum, Tim Wheeler, Trevor Cahill, Tyler Matzek, Tyreke Evans, Vin Mazzaro | No Comments
May 22nd, 2009
Tim Kawakami has confirmed that Warriors PR director Raymond Ritter wrote an anonymous message on warriorsworld.net yesterday, defending the organization’s conference call with season ticket holders.
First, let me say, that there isn’t anyone who values loyalty more than I do. I don’t have a big beef with Ritter because it’s his job to help the organization come out in a positive light. It’s not his job, and is a mistake, to post anonymously on fan message boards, but I don’t in any way blame him for the Warrior problems. Those problems lie with Cohan, Rowell, and Nelson, and bad planning and personnel decisions are a result of the current leadership.
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Categories: Golden State Warriors, Oakland A's, San Francisco Giants |
Tags: 49ers, A's, A.J. Hinch, Aaron Rowand, Bear Pascoe, Bengie Molina, Brad Ziegler, Brian Wilson, Dallas Braden, Dan Haren, Dre Bly, Giants, JaMarcus Russell, Jeremy Roenick, Jesus Guzman, Jr., Keith Davis, Ken Griffey, Ken Stabler, Larry Riley, Michael Crabtree, Michael Vick, Mickael Pietrus, Nate Schierholtz, Pablo Sandoval, Raiders, Rajai Davis, Raymond Ritter, Travis Ishikawa, Warriors | No Comments
May 21st, 2009
If the Niners sign Dre Bly and actually give him a significant role, they might as well give up on the season. He sucks that bad. For a team that is hoping for a postseason berth, where one win or loss could make a difference between making the playoffs or missing it, Bly honestly could be that difference.
I have quite a few friends who are Bronco fans, and they all told me about how great the Broncos cornerbacks were after they acquired Bly from Detroit, and I was quick to point out that he was completely overrated and gives up a lot of big plays. A few years later, and after countless huge passing plays by the opposition, they couldn’t wait to run him out of town. He’s a risk-taker who, more often than not, winds up on the wrong side of those risks. While the Niners have a better defense than Denver, they do have one of the same problems when it comes to a lack of a consistent pass rush. Bly was burned repeatedly last year, and I don’t think that would change with a Niners team that has trouble getting to the quarterback.
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Categories: San Francisco 49ers |
Tags: 49ers, Aaron Rowand, Barry Zito, Brandon Crawford, Brett Anderson, Chris McAllister, Derrick Burgess, Dre Bly, JaMarcus Russell, Jerry Rice, Josh Morgan, Kevin Correia, Matt Cain, Michael Vick, Mike McKenzie, Mike Singletary, Nick Montana, Pacman Jones, Pat Misch, Patrick Surtain, Raiders, Randy Winn, Ryan Sweeney, Scot McCloughan, Scott Hairston, Sergio Romo, Tarell Brown, Tim Alderson, Tim Lincecum, Tom Cable, Vernon Davis, Vince McMahon | No Comments
May 19th, 2009
For a lot of teams, the month of May means playoffs. For Warrior fans, it means the NBA Draft Lottery, which takes place tonight. Since the Warriors took home the first overall pick in the infamous Joe Smith 1995 draft, however, the team has not had any luck in the lottery.
In fact, the Warriors have been involved with eleven draft lotteries since, and has not picked higher than their end of season finish once. This includes the 2002 draft when they had the league’s worst record and ended up with the third overall pick. Instead of Yao Ming, the team ended up with Mike Dunleavy. Of course, most of the time, the Warriors have ended up with the unenviable 8th, 9th, or 10th spot in many draft lotteries where their chances of have been limited. Still, though, the Bulls had the ninth worst record in the league last year and ended up with the number one pick.
If you add up all of the percentages of the Warriors chances in the last 10 lotteries, they have had on average a 5.04% chance of landing the first overall pick, and a 5.75% of taking home the second overall pick. That means, according to the numbers, the Warriors should have picked first or second at least once in the last decade. I bring up the first or second overall picks because this year’s draft is basically two deep with Blake Griffin and Ricky Rubio. Both should be stars and would greatly help the Warriors. Picking third is only slightly better than the seventh pick that the Dubs are more likely to receive.
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Categories: Golden State Warriors |
Tags: 49ers, A's, Aaron Rowand, Blake Griffin, Dan Giese, Deangelo Hall, Draft Lottery, Eric Chavez, Giants, Isaac Bruce, JaMarcus Russell, Jimmy Williams, Jon Gruden, Landon Powell, Michael Vick, Mike Singletary, Missy Penna, Nick Montana, Noah Lowry, Orel Hershiser, Orlando Cabrera, Raiders, Ricky Rubio, Tim Lincecum, Travis Ishikawa, Warriors, Willie Mays | No Comments
