Uribe Deserves New Giants Deal, Jonny Sanchez’s High Heat, Bullpen Catcher Buster Posey, and Looking Ahead to Rockies Series

September 8th, 2009

With all of the talk surrounding Bengie Molina’s contract situation, Juan Uribe is more deserving of a new Giants deal than Molina and Freddy Sanchez, and it’s not just because of Uribe’s recent hot-hitting.  Of course, the Giants could re-sign both Sanchez and Uribe, and commit second base to Sanchez and third base to Uribe in 2010.  But, if it comes down to one or the other, Uribe seems the more logical commitment. 

For starters, Uribe is younger and more healthy.  Uribe turned 30 in March, while Sanchez turns 32 in December.  In his six weeks as a Giant, Sanchez has had knee and shoulder issues, while Uribe has mostly been pain-free.  Health should be the number one concern when it comes to signing players to multi-year deals… even two-year contracts.

Uribe is also more versatile.  While Sanchez hasn’t played anywhere other than second since 2006, the Giants can play Uribe at second, short, and third.  Versatility is becoming one of those many aspects of baseball that has been undervalued.  (In the way that on-base percentage and defense have been undervalued the last several years.)  Uribe’s versatility also gives the team some leeway to develop their younger infielders.  Uribe can play third to make room for a second baseman, and he play second so someone can play third or first (whichever position Sandoval isn’t playing).  He also, of course, is capable of playing shortstop if Edgar Renteria continues to tail off next year. 

Uribe does all of this while playing very good defense no matter where he’s playing.  He’s only slightly below average at shortstop, but so is Renteria.  Sanchez is a good defender at second, but Uribe is just as good in the field.

As for the offense, it may just be that Uribe will be a better hitter over the next couple of seasons.  This season, Uribe’s OPS is .816, nearly 100 points better than his career mark (.726).  His wOBA is .345 this season compared to a .309 career number.  Maybe Uribe is in a salary drive (although I doubt it) but, perhaps more likely, Uribe is becoming a better hitter and one of the many players more successful in the National League.  I’m not expecting a .816 OPS in the future, but a .780 OPS in 2010 and 2011 isn’t that unrealistic and still above average.     

By comparison, Sanchez is a career .756 OPS hitter, and has a .768 mark this year.  He did have an .851 OPS in his best season in 2006 when he hit .332, but that was when Sanchez was still in his 20’s.  I’m guessing Sanchez’s 2009 offensive numbers are more reflective of his next few seasons.  And, with Sanchez being 32 and 33 the next couple of seasons, the numbers could go down.

In the end, there may not be a huge difference between Uribe and Sanchez offensively in the next few seasons.  However, Uribe’s versatility, defense, health, and clubhouse presence (which continues to get talked up) make him the better option to sign for the next few seasons.  If you factor in that Uribe may be cheaper because so many people in baseball (Sabean?) are still in love with batting average, then he is a MUCH better option.

 

More notes:

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Under Giants Regime, Youth is Not Being Served in 2009

September 2nd, 2009

One of the biggest reasons why I wouldn’t mind seeing a new regime replace Sabean-Bochy is the overreliance on veterans.  Of course, I’m saying this after veterans Edgar Renteria and Bengie Molina deliver two of the biggest hits of the season in the last week.   The veterans should still play a little, but it’s a fallacy when managers and GM’s think that veterans need to play more down the stretch because they’re “gamers” or because “they’ve been here before”.  There’s an all-too-common belief within baseball that playing younger players means you’re giving your team less of a chance to win. 

In many cases, younger players can be better options than the veteran “gamers”, especially when those veterans are already below average players.  Of course, “below average” is a kind phrase to use for most of the Giants hitters.  There are many examples of younger players helping teams in stretch runs, but in the NL West, we don’t have to look much further than the 2007 Rockies.  They were essentially “giving up” on their season when they called up Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales in August.  Of course, those pitchers were instrumental in their amazing September run.  Prospects can make your team better.  They shouldn’t be players who are only given time when your team is out of the race.

Those prospects can only become good major leaguers with experience.  If they’ve dominated Triple-A pitching, they aren’t going to become better major leaguers by continuing to hit off of those same Triple-A pitchers.  John Bowker may be better hitter in the future, but I can concede he is probably a below-average major league hitter right now.  Still, I’d rather have him taking away some at bats from Randy Winn (especially against lefties such as last night), who is also a below-average hitter.  At least, Bowker can get better with the experience. 

I’m not saying the vets shouldn’t play, but this was supposed to be a season where we were going to find out a lot about the Giants positional prospects.  The organization wasn’t really strong in upper-level positional players, but there are still quite a few unknowns within this franchise.  I feel like the Giants have wasted part of this season by not giving enough at bats to guys like Bowker, Kevin Frandsen, Jesus Guzman, Nate Schierholtz (remember when he had 18 at bats through May 1st), and, yes, even Fred Lewis (Bay City Ball’s reasoning for Lewis to play more.).  Odds are, most of these guys won’t ever be everyday major-leaguers, but good organizations find a way to get these type of players enough at bats to find out.  Unfortunately, with the Giants, they’re still unknowns.    

As pointed out at Inside Baggs, the Giants average just 3.58 pitches per plate appearance, which is the lowest in the majors by far.  Of the 16 NL teams, they’re 15th in runs/game, 15th in HR’s, 16th in walks and 16th in on-base percentage.  If the Giants found a way to give guys such as Frandsen, Bowker, and Lewis more at bats, would these numbers be much worse?  I don’t think so.  There’s even a decent chance they may be better. 

Even more frustrating, the Giants didn’t even call up Frandsen when teams were allowed to expand their rosters yesterday.  And, while Sabean and the rest of the brass think its unfathomable, calling up Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner may be the difference between a playing baseball or playing golf in October.  When you’ve got a chance for a championship, you go for it.  I don’t care about affecting one’s service time or hurting veterans feelings.  If calling up Posey and Bumgarner means that the team has to wait until June, instead of May, before calling them up to the major league roster again so the Giants can steal an extra year of service time, then so be it. 

Think of this scenario:  The Giants wait until May before they call up Posey and Bumgarner, the team misses the playoffs, and when the team calls up these players in 2010, both immediately take off and adjust smoothly to major-league competition.  Giants fans will be ticked off that these guys weren’t allowed to make an impact in the previous year’s pennant chase.  And, even worse, the Sabean-Bochy tandem may be awarded contract extensions this offseason.  The same guys who continually rewarded veteran players with at bats despite mediocre offense from those veteran players.                    

Renteria, Winn, Molina, and Aaron Rowand all deserve their share of at bats, but this year, they’ve been given too many at bats.  While it’s a positive that these guys have mostly played solid defense, they should have been given more days off earlier in the season in favor of younger players.  If they were, maybe they would be even more rested for this stretch drive. 

This has been touched on at McCovey Chronicles, but even more frustrating for Giants fans, is the Giants organization lack of patience for younger players.  Eugenio Velez got off to a hot start upon his recall, and that earned him plenty of extra at bats.  Bowker didn’t and he was back in Triple-A before he knew it.  You may not want to hear another Rockies example, but Carlos Gonzalez was scuffling with a .188 average on July 6th.  Now, after over 500 career plate appearances, he looks like a future star.  The Rockies didn’t demote him to the Pacific Coast League, where he has already dominated.  They kept him on their major league roster, and now it’s paying major dividends. 

Can you imagine if Pablo Sandoval got off to a 4-for-45 start last season?  He might have struggled to get consistent at bats on last year’s and this year’s team.  The only reason the Giants committed to him everyday was because he started raking right away.  Sandoval is a rare case, because most hitters take time before they learn major league pitching. 

It’s actually pretty simple.  The more major league at bats a team’s young hitting prospects receive, they will either become better players or at least a team will find out about their long-term chances.  In baseball economics, because of service time, younger players that perform well are extremely valuable.  The Giants organization’s lack of patience and commitment with younger players may cost them this season but, more importantly, has also hurt their chances in 2010 and 2011.            

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Tulo Needs to Stay Sick

August 21st, 2009

The Giants did everything they could to keep the Rockies in the game, blowing excellent scoring opportunities in the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings, while also walking six (plus a HBP).  Yet, it was a “W” and the sweetest of the season… that is, until their next one.  Sometimes, it pays to be pessimistic.  In fact, having said that, there’s no way they beat Giants killer Jorge De La Rosa tonight. 

Other Thoughts:

  • It does help that one of the best hitters in baseball since early June, Troy Tulowitzki, doesn’t play because of the flu bug.  Tulo is the second best shortstop in the league.  He’s also a gamer.  I doubt that he’s out tonight, too.
  • While the walks are still frustrating, it was so nice to see Jonathan Sanchez use his great fastball with two strikes.  So often, we’ve seen Sanchez jimmy-jack around with breaking stuff and trying to paint corners (while missing badly).  Last night, the high fastball was fantastic.  We need to see more of it. 
  • I wish Bochy didn’t pinch-hit for Sanchez in the sixth.  At 91 pitches, Sanchez could have easily went at least one and maybe two more innings.  It also would have helped his confidence that much more.  
  • Aaron Rowand’s home run was HUGE.  It seems like that was the Giants first three-run homer of the year.  Whatever it was, it made things easier on Sanchez, who responded with a dominant bottom of the fourth inning.
  • Eugenio Velez is still a nightmare in left.  He’s like Timmy Lupus out there.

    •    lupus  

  • Velez is also in a major funk at the plate.  Sit him down, please. 
  • Don’t look now, but Edgar Renteria is 13 for his last 31.  Okay, I’m not feeling any better about him, either.  He does have only one RBI during that stretch.  Baby steps.
  • The Rockies are usually sound so the three errors were surprising.  We can’t count on that the rest of the series.
  • Jeremy Affeldt has been unbelievable in double play situations.  That’s 16 this year after getting Helton to 1-2-3.  Remarkable.  Came at a great time when the scoreboard was instructing Rockies fans to “Make Some Noise!”  Could there be anything more obnoxious and annoying than a scoreboard instructing fans to make noise?  What kind of Mickey Mouse operation are they running at Coors?  

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For Giants Fans, Pessimism Reigns Supreme

August 11th, 2009

Maybe it’s because they haven’t won a championship in San Francisco.  Maybe it’s because of all the heartbreaking conclusions to seasons past.  Maybe it bugs me more, because I’m too optimistic.  (I even joked about the negativity just a few weeks ago.)  Whatever it is, Giants fans are, by and large, pessimistic, and the 2009 Giants deserve better.  The Giants play the game the right way, and has positioned itself for a pennant chase, despite mostly low expectations.

Sure, I’m as disgusted with Edgar Renteria’s at bats as anybody else.  Bengie Molina’s inability to take a pitch drives me nuts.  Randy Winn’s plate appearances can take away the optimism from even some of the most ardent fans.  Jonathan Sanchez’s inability to get out of fourth and fifth inning jams, despite great stuff, is maddening.  The Giants aren’t the only team with problems, however.  The Dodger bullpen and rotation depth has been frustrating for their fans.  Rockies fans have just about had it with Chris Iannetta, and Jason Hammel certainly doesn’t make them feel any better.  You think Cardinals fans enjoy Rick Ankiel, Todd Wellemeyer, and Kyle Lohse?

As said before, every contender in the National League is flawed.  There is no reason for Giants fans to feel worse about our problems than anybody else.  It’s okay to point out the various inabilities of the team when at the office or the bar, but I have a problem when a packed house, in what is the biggest game of the year to that point,  seems to lose all optimism because of one swing of the bat… in the fourth inning!  Understandably, this team hasn’t mounted many comebacks this year, but they did come back from two runs down eight days earlier, and from three runs down just five days earlier.

While perusing the McCovey Chronicles Game Thread last night, you’d think the game was over after the Matt Kemp double (which, some would say, it was).  There was even an “Open Depression Thread” started in the later innings with the team only down three runs.  While I don’t care as much about what is said by those who aren’t at the game, it does give you an idea of the pessimistic nature many, and maybe most, Giants fans have about this franchise.

The Giants are probably the underdog in this 2009 playoff chase.  However, that’s a major reason why they the fans to give them that extra adrenaline.  Think of the 2007 Warriors upset of Dallas.  The Warriors were the underdog, and it might have been a little hyperbole, but the players did say they couldn’t have done it without the fans.  For that series, the Dubs had the greatest home-court advantage the NBA had seen in the last ten years.  The Giants have a lot of these same types of fans, who try to get the crowd riled up.  The problem is for every 7,000 loud die-hards, there are about 20,000 fans who are waiting to jump at the first sign of trouble.

All I ask, as a die-hard Giants fan, is for all of you who go to every game, or just go once in a while, to throw total support this team’s way for these final 21 home games.  As an underdog, this team needs it more than others.  Sure, the offense will be frustrating, but when we groan about it, we’re not filling in the Giants players on anything they don’t know.  In a baseball world that has been obsessed with home runs, this team is still refreshing because they play solid defense and thrive on good pitching.  Not to mention, this is still a mostly young team, that is going to need our full support for the next several seasons, when they are consistently in pennant races.  So why not cheer as if we’re starting our rebuilding success a year early?  After all, whether your optimistic or pessimistic, as die-hard fans, we’re going to be equally disappointed if this team misses the playoffs, right?               (more…)

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Giants/Astros Preview **** Monday, August 3, 2009

August 3rd, 2009

Starting with today’s game in Houston, West Coast Bias will try (emphasis on “try”; I don’t have much of a life, but a part of one.) to preview most of the Giants’ remaining 57 games.  We’ll attempt to bring you the most possible information on each Giants game, so you can impress your buddies at the bar… or maybe even beat your bookie.

 

Giants (58-47) at Houston (52-53)  5:05 PST

Matt Cain (12-2, 2.12) vs. Mike Hampton (6-8, 5.36)

Yesterday’s 7-3 Win vs. Phillies

  • I don’t like to give a lot of credit for a six-inning start, but Barry Zito deserves the accolades.  There was some questionable fielding by Freddy Sanchez at second and also a couple of foul pops that weren’t caught, but Zito hung in there when he could have folded up the tent after the Giants were trailing 3-1.  After he got the lead, Zito responded with a fantastic 1-2-3 sixth, as he struck out both Ben Francisco and Ryan Howard.  It’s probably a good time for Bochy to start letting Zito pitch deeper in games. 
  • Sanchez was a little shaky in the field, but the guy can definitely hit, and he already has one of the biggest Giants hits this season with that two-run knock to right-centerfield.  (Let’s face it:  It wasn’t looking good after the top of the fifth.)  Considering the solid contact he made throughout the day, you couldn’t ask for a much better offensive Giants debut.  And, I’m all for the #21 number.
  • Eugenio Velez can be downright scary in the field, but it’s nice to see someone come up from Fresno and start hitting right away… because, in this organization, there isn’t much patience for those who don’t.            
  • Not that anyone was concerned, but Jeremy Affeldt got back to his usual ways after a shaky outing on Thursday. 
  • A salute to the crowd for creating an “almost playoff-type” atmosphere.  I particularly like the crowd getting loud for Velez’s at bat in the sixth inning.  If you don’t think that stuff pumps up these guys, you’re crazy.  For one, think about someone like Sanchez, who’s never played in a pennant race before.

Giants Notes

  • 21-31 on the road
  • 14-10 vs. NL Central
  • 2-1 vs. Astros in 3-game set at AT&T one month ago. 
  • Coming off 6-1 home stand where the pitching posted a 1.14 ERA.

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Two Freddy Sanchez Alternatives

July 29th, 2009

Despite Eugenio Velez’s breakthrough performance last night, we all know the Giants could still use a second baseman.  (Of course, if it were up to me, Kevin Frandsen would have had around 250 at bats by now, so we would know for sure about his potential one way or the other… but I digress.)  I’ve cooled on Freddy Sanchez because I’m not particularly enthused about his $8 million salary for next year, plus the fact that he’s currently banged up.  (As noted at Inside Baggs, the Giants may be better served avoiding Sanchez.)    The Giants, in a sense, have already locked themselves into first base for 2010, with Ryan Garko and Travis Ishikawa likely manning the position.  A Sanchez trade would not only entail dealing a good prospect or two, but also locking up another position for 2010.  With Edgar Renteria signed for next year, plus the Panda surely handling third base, a Sanchez trade would mean the Giants will have zero free-agent infield options this offseason.  That’s why I suggest these two alternatives:

1. Marco Scutaro – Scutaro has been a shortstop this entire season, but has played multiple positions in his career, including 306 games at second base.  He’s a slightly above-average defender at second (+0.1 UZR/150), and has been an excellent defender at shortstop this year.  In fact, if you factor in his defense, along with his excellent batting eye, he has been the tenth most valuable position-player in baseball this year (4.1 WAR).  Of course, a lot of this has to do with Scutaro having a career year at age 33.  Still, people have expected his numbers to drop off all season, yet he is hitting .349 with a .936 OPS in July.  One of the most frustrating aspects of being a Giants fan is not only watching the team struggle at the plate, but the refusal to draw a walk.  Scutaro works the count beautifully and has 62 walks this year, compared to 48 strikeouts. 

I have no idea what the asking price is, but I’d rather have Scutaro than Sanchez.  Scutaro’s .294 AVG/.388 OBA/.469 SLG is something that could be very valuable atop the Giants lineup.  (Oh yeah, did I mention he could lead off?)  Plus, he’s put up these numbers in a superior league, and only makes $1.1 million this year.  If the Giants don’t re-sign him, they also would be looking at receiving solid competition (likely a first-round pick) in the offseason.  Giving up a solid prospect is easier to do if the team knows they’ll be receiving one in return after a two-month rental.                    

And, considering, Renteria is banged up and needing offseason surgery, Scutaro gives the Giants a very reliable shortstop option as well.

2. Adam Kennedy – I’m not nearly as high on Kennedy, but think he should be had at a cheap price (of course, I’d also like to see the Giants inquire about Justin Duchscherer in a similar deal).  At a 1.5 WAR, Kennedy has been more valuable than Dan Uggla this year, mostly because he’s not an abortion defensively like Uggla.  His .295/.349/.425 (and .341 wOBA) numbers are clearly above average for a second baseman.  Despite missing three weeks this year, his 7 HR’s and 37 RBI’s are also very solid.   

Defensively, he’s been very up and down the last couple of years, including a worrisome (-10.2/UZR 150) this season.  Still, he was a +21.8 at second base last year, and is a career +8.4 UZR/150 at second.  I trust those numbers more than his smaller sample size for this year. 

Kennedy is on a $4 million salary for this year and, like Scutaro, ticketed for free agency after the season.  The A’s shouldn’t be asking for much, considering they would be happy to move his salary.  I’d rather give up less in prospects for two months of Kennedy at a pro-rated $1.4 million, than deal more prospects for 8 months of Freddy Sanchez at a combined $10+ million for 2009 and 2010.  

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Revisiting the Five Most Important Giants for 2009

July 17th, 2009

Yesterday, we saw that four of the five most important A’s, that I projected in late February, have been complete busts in 2009.  Today, we see that three of the five most important Giants have exceeded expectations.

1. Pablo Sandoval – Ah, yes.  The single greatest player of all-time.  Okay, maybe not… yet.  Seriously, though, if there was an NL MVP vote today, he’d probably finish in the top three.  In what may be the single most important baseball statistic for hitters, wOBA (weighted On-Base Average), Sandoval has the 11th best numbers (ahead of guys like Justin Morneau, Ryan Braun, and Miguel Cabrera) in that department this season.  Maybe the most positive sign for Sandoval, is how much his patience and power has improved in the last month and a half.  This is a guy who looks like he’s going to be one of the best hitters in the league, year after year.

One thing I was sure of coming into this season, was Sandoval’s defense.  He has been very solid at third base and looks like he can stick there for awhile.

2. Fred Lewis – And on the other end of the spectrum… Lewis has clearly been a disappointment, although he isn’t as bad as he looks.  Giants fans have been disgusted with his fielding, but the metrics actually grade out above average. (There are a lot of bad leftfielders in baseball.)  His wOBA was slightly above average last year (.348), but is 35 points lower this year.  I was thinking Lewis’ power was going to have to improve significantly for the Giants to have success, but surprisingly they have done very well without much contribution from him.  Considering how strong the outfield is defensively, with Randy Winn and Nate Schierholtz in the corner spots, plus with John Bowker’s arrival, it’s hard to imagine Lewis is going to get much of an opportunity to play in the second half.  I think he does still have value, however, and may bring back someone decent in return either by the deadline or in the offseason.

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Please, No More TV Interviews for Brian Wilson

July 2nd, 2009

As annoying as last night’s debacle was, Brian Wilson’s two TV appearances yesterday was much more of a train wreck.  He was on ESPN’s First Take and the Giants Pregame Show on Comcast SportsNet and continued to be as unfunny as Steve Lyons.  Even worse, the hosts of the shows, Dana Jacobson and Scott Reiss, laughed along with Wilson’s unfunniness.  

Why so many of these TV folks try to hype up Wilson as a funny person is beyond me.  Maybe it’s because of the boring TV show, Life of Brian, where admittedly I’ve only watched a few minutes.  I just know those few minutes I watched, I’ll never get back.  A guy walking around with a video camera, only amusing himself is not what I call great TV.  I’d rather watch Full House re-runs.   Jacobson called it dry humor yesterday, but if it’s not funny, it’s someone making themselves look ridiculous (particularly with that hair).  

Maybe I’m making a big deal about nothing, but considering how the Giants are finally in the national sports news for being a respectable team for the first time in five years, Wilson appears to be poor representation.  Basically, he looks like douche bag.  That’s what I would be thinking if I were a fan of another team watching Wilson for the first time.  ”Who is this loser and what is that dead animal on his head.”  (more…)

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A’s Fans Now Have Hope, But Difficult July Awaits

June 8th, 2009

While baseball fans all want our teams to be consistent winners, sometimes the best we can ask for is hope.  Teams like the Nationals, Orioles, and Astros have no hope.  The Astros may have the same record as the A’s, but their lack of hope rests on the fact that they have no pitching.  A’s fans have hope because they may have a very good rotation the rest of the season.

After I questioned Vin  Mazzaro’s major league debut success because of four walks in 6 1/3 innings, Mazzaro walked zero yesterday in 7 1/3 brilliant innings.  Mazzaro, Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Josh Outman, and the old man, 25-year old Dallas Braden, are all pitching extremely well, as noted in the links below.  

And, based on the schedule, they should continue to pitch well for the rest of June.  The four-game set that starts tonight against Minnesota won’t be easy, but the Twins just did struggle swinging the bats against Seattle.  If you factor in six games against the Giants, and three each against the Padres and Rockies, all this month, and the A’s should sustain most of this pitching momentum. (more…)

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Your 2010 Giants (No Lewis or Molina)

June 2nd, 2009

It’s been so long since I actually wrote anything, I figure I might as well dig deep into a topic that I think is very interesting for Giants fans.  It’s not that I think 2009 is hopeless, but everyone can agree that the Giants should be a better team in 2010 and 2011.  For the purpose of this post, we’ll focus on 2010.

The offseason between 2009 and 2010 is so interesting because the Giants have $37.25 million coming off the books between Randy Winn, Dave Roberts, Noah Lowry (apologies to those who have Lowry T-shirt jerseys), Randy Johnson, Bengie Molina, and Bobby Howry.  Plus, another $2 million with Juan Uribe and Rich Aurilia (let’s pray this is the last year of Aurilia).  The contracts of Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria, Jeremy Affeldt, and Matt Cain will go up a combined $8.6 million in 2010, and there will be other raises for guys like Tim Lincecum and Brian Wilson.  Nonetheless, the Giants should still make a decent mark in free agency, especially when you consider the payroll should rise since the team basically admitted they had money to spend but didn’t this season (considering the courting of Manny Ramirez).     

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