Under Giants Regime, Youth is Not Being Served in 2009

September 2nd, 2009

One of the biggest reasons why I wouldn’t mind seeing a new regime replace Sabean-Bochy is the overreliance on veterans.  Of course, I’m saying this after veterans Edgar Renteria and Bengie Molina deliver two of the biggest hits of the season in the last week.   The veterans should still play a little, but it’s a fallacy when managers and GM’s think that veterans need to play more down the stretch because they’re “gamers” or because “they’ve been here before”.  There’s an all-too-common belief within baseball that playing younger players means you’re giving your team less of a chance to win. 

In many cases, younger players can be better options than the veteran “gamers”, especially when those veterans are already below average players.  Of course, “below average” is a kind phrase to use for most of the Giants hitters.  There are many examples of younger players helping teams in stretch runs, but in the NL West, we don’t have to look much further than the 2007 Rockies.  They were essentially “giving up” on their season when they called up Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales in August.  Of course, those pitchers were instrumental in their amazing September run.  Prospects can make your team better.  They shouldn’t be players who are only given time when your team is out of the race.

Those prospects can only become good major leaguers with experience.  If they’ve dominated Triple-A pitching, they aren’t going to become better major leaguers by continuing to hit off of those same Triple-A pitchers.  John Bowker may be better hitter in the future, but I can concede he is probably a below-average major league hitter right now.  Still, I’d rather have him taking away some at bats from Randy Winn (especially against lefties such as last night), who is also a below-average hitter.  At least, Bowker can get better with the experience. 

I’m not saying the vets shouldn’t play, but this was supposed to be a season where we were going to find out a lot about the Giants positional prospects.  The organization wasn’t really strong in upper-level positional players, but there are still quite a few unknowns within this franchise.  I feel like the Giants have wasted part of this season by not giving enough at bats to guys like Bowker, Kevin Frandsen, Jesus Guzman, Nate Schierholtz (remember when he had 18 at bats through May 1st), and, yes, even Fred Lewis (Bay City Ball’s reasoning for Lewis to play more.).  Odds are, most of these guys won’t ever be everyday major-leaguers, but good organizations find a way to get these type of players enough at bats to find out.  Unfortunately, with the Giants, they’re still unknowns.    

As pointed out at Inside Baggs, the Giants average just 3.58 pitches per plate appearance, which is the lowest in the majors by far.  Of the 16 NL teams, they’re 15th in runs/game, 15th in HR’s, 16th in walks and 16th in on-base percentage.  If the Giants found a way to give guys such as Frandsen, Bowker, and Lewis more at bats, would these numbers be much worse?  I don’t think so.  There’s even a decent chance they may be better. 

Even more frustrating, the Giants didn’t even call up Frandsen when teams were allowed to expand their rosters yesterday.  And, while Sabean and the rest of the brass think its unfathomable, calling up Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner may be the difference between a playing baseball or playing golf in October.  When you’ve got a chance for a championship, you go for it.  I don’t care about affecting one’s service time or hurting veterans feelings.  If calling up Posey and Bumgarner means that the team has to wait until June, instead of May, before calling them up to the major league roster again so the Giants can steal an extra year of service time, then so be it. 

Think of this scenario:  The Giants wait until May before they call up Posey and Bumgarner, the team misses the playoffs, and when the team calls up these players in 2010, both immediately take off and adjust smoothly to major-league competition.  Giants fans will be ticked off that these guys weren’t allowed to make an impact in the previous year’s pennant chase.  And, even worse, the Sabean-Bochy tandem may be awarded contract extensions this offseason.  The same guys who continually rewarded veteran players with at bats despite mediocre offense from those veteran players.                    

Renteria, Winn, Molina, and Aaron Rowand all deserve their share of at bats, but this year, they’ve been given too many at bats.  While it’s a positive that these guys have mostly played solid defense, they should have been given more days off earlier in the season in favor of younger players.  If they were, maybe they would be even more rested for this stretch drive. 

This has been touched on at McCovey Chronicles, but even more frustrating for Giants fans, is the Giants organization lack of patience for younger players.  Eugenio Velez got off to a hot start upon his recall, and that earned him plenty of extra at bats.  Bowker didn’t and he was back in Triple-A before he knew it.  You may not want to hear another Rockies example, but Carlos Gonzalez was scuffling with a .188 average on July 6th.  Now, after over 500 career plate appearances, he looks like a future star.  The Rockies didn’t demote him to the Pacific Coast League, where he has already dominated.  They kept him on their major league roster, and now it’s paying major dividends. 

Can you imagine if Pablo Sandoval got off to a 4-for-45 start last season?  He might have struggled to get consistent at bats on last year’s and this year’s team.  The only reason the Giants committed to him everyday was because he started raking right away.  Sandoval is a rare case, because most hitters take time before they learn major league pitching. 

It’s actually pretty simple.  The more major league at bats a team’s young hitting prospects receive, they will either become better players or at least a team will find out about their long-term chances.  In baseball economics, because of service time, younger players that perform well are extremely valuable.  The Giants organization’s lack of patience and commitment with younger players may cost them this season but, more importantly, has also hurt their chances in 2010 and 2011.            

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At Least We Don’t Have Omar Minaya in Charge

August 7th, 2009

As I watched Livan Hernandez get lit up in San Diego by the worst offense in the league last night, I couldn’t help but think about Omar Minaya and his incompetence as Mets general manager.  No matter what your feelings are toward Billy Beane and Brian Sabean, I think it’s safe to say they certainly aren’t among the worst ten general managers in the game (I think they are, at least, in the top fifteen).  The thing I can respect about Beane and Sabean is that they have stayed away from old, veteran has-been’s holding down starting rotation spots these last couple of seasons.    

There may have been a time when Beane and Sabean turned to retreads, but not anymore (no, Randy Johnson doesn’t qualify considering his sub-4 ERA last season).  In today’s game, general managers need to be smart with their payroll and it makes no sense to pay a veteran like Hernandez $2 million (with incentives) or Tim Redding ($2.25 million!!! Is Minaya in bed with Redding’s agent?), when you can easily find a minor leaguer who can do a better job at the minimum salary. 

That’s why it’s always better to turn to the Vin Mazzaro’s of the world, or even lesser prospects such as Joe Martinez and Ryan Sadowski.  It’s better than the 5.08 and 6.61 ERA’s that the Mets have received from Hernandez and Redding this season.  If the Giants and A’s were throwing out these types this season, we’d all have pitchforks.   

Omar Minaya sucks, and we didn’t even have to bring up the awful Oliver Perez contract.  

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Can the Comcast Obsession with Barry Bonds Please End?

August 5th, 2009

Greg Papa does a great job on Chronicle Live and on Giants Pregame shows, but this never-ending Barry Bonds discussion needs to cease… NOW.  Some New York writer does a piece on the loose Giants clubhouse minus Bonds, and Comcast needs to interview the writer on the Pregame Show and discuss it on Chronicle Live?  Seriously, is this really news?  I’m pretty sure Bonds hasn’t played a game in a Giants uniform in almost two years.   

Of course, it doesn’t get any better when idiots call Chronicle Live suggesting the Giants need to sign Bonds.  Why is it the people with no clue, are always the ones who have the guts to call and give their uninformed, misguided opinion? 

Anyone that thinks Bonds would give the Giants a huge upgrade is out of their minds.  (I can’t believe I’m actually going to break this down.)  Clubhouse chemistry talk aside, there is little chance he could be the same hitter when he left.  A great deal of Bonds’ success in his last couple of seasons was the walks (132 in 2007).  Pitchers wouldn’t be dancing around Bonds as they did then.  Why would you pitch around a hitter who hasn’t played in two years, is 45, and is smaller than he was two years ago? 

Of course, there is also the defense, where Bonds was one of the worst defensive leftfielders in the game (which is saying something because there are a lot of bad ones).  I don’t think his range has improved since he left the game and moved into his mid 40’s. 

The real reason Bonds’ name gets brought up on Comcast is because TV heads are mostly void of original thought.  They love discussing the same subject over and over again.  It’s why we can’t get away from Brett Favre, Michael Vick, and Jon and Kate.  I’m sure it won’t be the last time we see Bonds discussed on Comcast.  Personally, I’d like to hear more about players that are actually on this 2009 Giants team.               

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Freddy Sanchez is at Home in the NL West

August 3rd, 2009

While I stand by my argument that the Giants gave up too much for Freddy Sanchez, and should have used Tim Alderson as trade bait for a hitter with more pop, my entire support is thrown his way now that he’s a Giant.  Yesterday, Mike Krukow made mention of how Sanchez told him that he enjoys hitting in the NL West parks because of their enormous outfields.  It certainly makes sense for a line-drive hitter, such as Sanchez.

Brian Sabean should have told us this when he made the trade, instead of reminding us that Sanchez was a “professional hitter”.  When you keep telling us that Sanchez is a “professional hitter”, all you’re doing is reminding us that most of our team is filled with “unprofessional hitters”.  (Even if it’s true, we don’t need to be reminded.)  If Sabean had told me that Sanchez owns the Dodgers and Rockies, I still wouldn’t have agreed with the price tag, but I would have definitely felt a little better about the deal.

When you look into the numbers, Sanchez is very comfortable against the Giants competition in the NL West, with the exception of the Padres. (Of course, he fits right in since the Giants can’t win in San Diego anyway.)

OPPONENT AVERAGE OPS BALLPARK AVERAGE OPS
LAD .342 .827 Dodger .333 .787
COL .373 .948 Coors .403 1.028
ARZ .327 .829 Chase .327 .826
SD .234 .575 PETCO .250 .628

As for the Giants, he was a career .340, .841 OPS hitter against, and the ballpark talk wasn’t just talk.  Sanchez loves AT&T to the tune of a .378 batting average and .929 OPS.  It’s those fantastic OPS numbers against NL West opposition that are very encouraging.  WCB did say that this trade could look good if Sanchez posts an OPS over .800 in these final couple of months.

Considering that 34 of the final 57 games (59.6%) are against NL West opponents, that .800+ OPS for Sanchez suddenly seems very possible.  With all of the heavy intra-division scheduling during the regular season (44.4%), maybe Sanchez’s numbers could actually improve slightly on his Pittsburgh stats.  One things for sure:  If he beats up on L.A. and Colorado this season, he’ll fit in very quickly.

Now about that defense:

I’m going to give Sanchez the benefit of the doubt on his defense because his metrics (tied for fifth-best among all second basemen) are so solid.  However, Giants fans that saw him yesterday and the three games the Giants played in Pittsburgh have seen some very shaky fielding from Sanchez.

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49ers Shouldn’t Budge in Crabtree Negotiations

July 31st, 2009

I’m as excited as anyone else when it comes to Michael Crabtree’s potential, and the chance that he becomes an elite NFL receiver.  However, when you consider his agent, Eugene Parker, and his ridiculous demands that Crabtree should be paid like a top three pick, the Niners should wait this out. 

There shouldn’t be much of a sense of urgency on the team’s part because this is the deepest receiving corps the 49ers have had in several years.  With Isaac Bruce and Josh Morgan expected to be the starters, plus capable starters such as Brandon Jones, Arnaz Battle, and Jason Hill all waiting in the wings, Crabtree is more of a luxury than a need in 2009.  Sure, Crabtree has the highest upside of any 49er receiver and still has potential for a big-time rookie season (such as the player he’s been most often compared to, Anquan Boldin), but it’s very unlikely for a receiver to blow anyone’s socks off in their initial season.  (Did I just use the phrase, “blow anyone’s socks off”?  I think I’m the first person under the age of 70 to use that phrase.)  It’s even more unlikely since he has such a long ways to go on the depth chart.  

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Alderson Should Have Been Part of Something Bigger

July 30th, 2009

Obviously, WCB was never that enamored with Freddy Sanchez.  Don’t get me wrong.  He’s a solid player and, assuming he gets healthy, clearly makes the Giants better in 2009.  But, yesterday, we posted a couple of alternatives to acquiring Sanchez for fear of the organization giving up too much for a 31-year old who currently has an MCL sprain.  Still, no one, in even our wildest of nightmares, foresaw one of Baseball America’s top 50 prospects, Tim Alderson, being included in a Sanchez trade.  (Thanks to the Warriors brass, as noted below, this wasn’t the worst trade of the day in the Bay Area.)  It was not too long ago that Sabean was discussing the Giants reluctance to part with their best prospects.  My most accounts, Alderson was one of the top four, if not top three prospects, in the organization. 

So, what changed?  The Twins interest in Sanchez?  The eight runs in three games against Pittsburgh?  Ryan Klesko and Edgardo Alfonzo refusing to come out of retirement?     

Whatever it was, this trade has compromised the 2010 flexibility for the organization.  This team likely still needs a middle-of-the-order hitter, and now that hitter is going to have to be an outfielder.  With Ryan Garko and Travis Ishikawa, first base is tied down next year.  Sanchez’s 2010 option likely holds down second base.  Edgar Renteria and Pablo Sandoval will be the left side of the infield, and Buster Posey will likely be the team’s everyday catcher at some point in 2010.  The only good power-hitting outfield options (who don’t kill you defensively) on the free-agent market are Matt Holliday and Jason Bay.  Whoever acquires those two, will likely have to overpay.         

That’s why Alderson was valuable, and not untouchable.  (To give you an idea about Alderson’s value:  He was more highly regarded than any of the players acquired by the Indians in the Cliff Lee deal.)  I always envisioned Alderson as someone who could be packaged with other prospects for a proven power-hitter.  Either now, or in the next year.  In this space last week, I suggested that I wouldn’t have been disappointed if the Giants organized a deal around Alderson and Conor Gillaspie for someone like Holliday.  Or even perhaps Victor Martinez.  If the Indians were so interested in Scott Barnes, couldn’t the Giants work a package around Alderson, Barnes and someone else for middle-of-the-order stud like Martinez?  Martinez would certainly be a better fit for this team than the combination of Garko and Sanchez.   

It’s pretty simple really.  Sports trades are about value.  Sanchez’s value is not great considering his $8 million option for next season that is likely to kick in once he reaches 600 plate appearances.  Even if he doesn’t reach those plate appearances, the Giants could still pick up his option.  And, if they don’t pick up the option?  The Giants would risk losing Sanchez to free-agency and receive zero draft-pick compensation.  The Pirates were dealing with these same parameters, which is why they were so aggressive in moving the second baseman. 

This deal isn’t about whether Alderson will ever be a top-notch pitcher, or even a serviceable starter.  It’s about forfeiting the opportunity to use Alderson, either now or in the next year, as a piece to something bigger and better.   A hitter who may be the difference between the Giants being a playoff contender and a championship contender.   

Instead, we settle for Sanchez.  He’s a nice player, as an above-average offensive second baseman who also happens to field well.  It’s not a horrible trade because it clearly makes the Giants better this year.  But, it is a bad one because a significant player was dealt for one who isn’t a big difference-maker.  It’s a bad one because the Giants didn’t even receive a lesser prospect in return (The Phillies got Ben Francisco).  It’s a bad one because the Giants didn’t even force the Pirates to pay any of Sanchez’s salary.  Now, Sabean and Giants fans have to hope that Sanchez puts together a stellar couple of months (maybe an OPS over .800) that leads the Giants into the playoffs and beyond.  Even then, we’ll still probably be asking questions about whether this would have been a playoff team with or without Sanchez anyway.         

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Trade for Garko: Tough Call, but Maybe a Necessary Risk

July 28th, 2009

I like Grant’s view on McCovey Chronicles because he doesn’t feel comfortable offering an opinion on the Ryan Garko trade.  I was almost in the same boat last night because I wouldn’t have been terribly disappointed if Brian Sabean didn’t make a move.  After further review, I see this as a necessary risk even though I like Scott Barnes.  A 21-year old lefthander (who is 12-3 with a 2.85 ERA in San Jose) that strikes out over a batter an inning is not exactly easy to find.  Plus, he doesn’t walk many guys.  The Giants perhaps needed to take a chance, though.  They do so on someone who could have very good value if he gets hot in the final couple of months.

Garko is a career .860 OPS hitter after the All-Star break.  That’s pretty damn good!  We’re definitely not talking about Shea Hillenbrand here.  Plus, Garko is under control for the next three seasons, as he’s arbitration eligible through 2012.  (That’s why the Giants had to give up more to get Garko than the free-agent eligible Adam LaRoche.)  There’s also the argument that American League players are immediately better players when they come to the National League.  This is often the case (look at freaking Casey Blake!), although if you’re really curious, Garko’s numbers (29 for 129 with 4 HR’s) are not that impressive against the NL in his career.  If you’re really reaching for another positive, Garko is a good postseason hitter in a very limited sample size (.314 avg, .899 OPS in 39 PA’s).

Breaking down the Garko/Travis Ishikawa comparison, you’ll find that Garko over the course of the season is slightly more valuable than Ishikawa.  He might make the Giants a half of a win better in the second half of the season.

BREAKDOWN

GARKO

ISHIKAWA
AGE 28 25
CAREER AVG. .283 .272
CAREER OPS .805 .746
CAREER wOBA .352 .324
vs. RHP .270 AVG
.768 OPS		 .269 AVG
.753 OPS
VS. LHP .318 AVG
.906 OPS		 .300 AVG
.677 OPS
UZR/150 GAMES -4.0 +10.0
2009 WAR 1.3 0.9

A half of a win doesn’t sound like much, but these things (WAR- Wins Above Replacement Player) do have a margin for error.  (more…)

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The Sky is Falling

July 27th, 2009

“It was fun while it lasted.”

“This team just doesn’t have what it takes.”

“It’s over.”

The Giants can’t hit. (One homer in ten games! Including three games at Coors Field?!?!) The back end of the rotation is a major question mark. The team is 21-31 on the road. On Chronicle Live tonight, we’ll surely hear the panelists begging Brian Sabean to make a move or criticize him for not getting Matt Holliday.

With no big trade in sight, why even play the rest of these games?

1. Because you’re never as bad as when you look your worst. (Just like you’re never as good as when you’re playing your best.) This road trip sucked. I have cuts on my wrists to prove it. But, they’re not this bad. If you’ve watched this team play all season, you know this.

    2. The normally below-average offense was brutally awful. We know the Giants can’t hit very much, but this reached new lows. The Panda didn’t hit as well as he was before the break, and had zero home runs on the trip. We know, from the Bonds years, that an offense can struggle if its best player isn’t hitting. Also, Aaron Rowand didn’t start the final six games (not that he was hitting well before the injury). Maybe this extra Rowand rest will make him more fresh for the final couple of months so he doesn’t have the awful second half that he had last season. (Okay, maybe I’m reaching with this one.)
    3. The young players aren’t stepping up, (and Sabean isn’t happy about it) but the beauty of youth is the unknown. We don’t know what a lot of these young hitters are going to do, but we know there’s a better chance that someone like Nate Schierholtz or Travis Ishikawa has a hot couple of months, than if they trade for some Shea Hillenbrand-type. (Back in May, I was a proponent of an Aubrey Huff trade, but his value this year has been worse than Ishikawa’s.)

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All-Star Game is an Example of Fielding Importance in Baseball

July 15th, 2009

Any Giants fan watching last night’s game might have been a little frustrated by the lack of defense played behind Tim Lincecum in the opening inning.  First, Yadier Molina started what should have been a double play, only David Wright was not in proper position and unleashed a wild throw to first.  Then, normally reliable Albert Pujols made an error in the same inning.  Later in the game, we saw a misplay in left by Justin Upton (usually a really good rightfielder) on a game-changing Curtis Granderson triple, and a fantastic play by Carl Crawford to take away a home run from Brad Hawpe.

I found it refreshing that both good and bad fielding was on display last night because this is a time in baseball where the importance of defense is analyzed more by fans than it ever has been before.  Thanks to fantastic websites like FanGraphs, we can measure the true value of certain players and their defensive metrics.  Any general manager, like Kansas City’s Dayton Moore, who isn’t using defensive metrics in their analysis is doing their team’s fans a major disservice.

For example, a lot of supposed baseball experts, who have no idea what FanGraphs is, will tell you that power-hitters Adam Dunn and Jermaine Dye would be major upgrades to the Giants.  However, when you dig deep into the overall analysis (the UZR numbers), you’ll find that they are awful defensively.  Randy Winn, thanks to his defensive prowess, is just as valuable, if not more so, than Dunn and Dye even though Winn doesn’t post the sexy home run and RBI numbers.

This season, we have listened to dopes like John Kruk, who are so surprised about the success of teams like the Giants, Mariners, Rangers, and Tigers.  When you look at the UZR team stats, however, you’ll find that the Giants are the fourth best fielding team in baseball, while the Mariners are second, the Tigers are fifth, and the Rangers are seventh.  The 2008 UZR’s show that three of the final four participants (Rays, Phillies, Red Sox) were also among the top four defensive teams in the league during last year’s regular season.  Defense counts and the numbers prove it.

Fielding ratings aren’t the only important statistics in baseball, but they may be the most undervalued and underutilized.  The Giants, and any other contending team, should keep defense in mind as this year’s trading deadline approaches.  Because any team that gets Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye to roam their outfield could be in for a rude surprise.

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Bochy Shouldn’t Have Sent Johnson Out for the Fourth Inning on Sunday

July 7th, 2009

1a

I’m not mad at Bruce Bochy and I don’t blame him solely for Randy Johnson’s shoulder strain, but I can’t figure out why he sent the Big Unit out for the fourth inning on Sunday.  It was obvious to everyone in the ballpark, and particularly the Giants dugout, that Johnson hurt himself swinging the bat in the bottom of the third inning.  A number of us watching the game on television were thinking that he wouldn’t pitch the rest of the game  

There are a number of reasons he shouldn’t have been out there for the fourth inning.  First of all, he’s 45!  Why take any chances with a guy who’s obviously pitching on his last legs?  Second, the bullpen was well rested considering Ryan Sadowski and Tim Lincecum were coming off consecutive seven-inning outings.  If you factor in the long man, Jonathan Sanchez, had a day off Saturday and could have pitched 2-3 innings on Sunday, Bochy had more reasons to go to somebody other than Johnson.  Finally, not only is the bullpen well-rested, but it’s an eight person bullpen.  If you’re going to carry 13 pitchers (which you usually shouldn’t), than you have more reasons to go to the pen earlier than you would normally want to.  Bochy clearly made a mistake considering Johnson’s velocity and command were way off in that fourth inning. (Not to mention the throwing error that ultimately sealed his fate.) 

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