For starters, Uribe is younger and more healthy.  Uribe turned 30 in March, while Sanchez turns 32 in December.  In his six weeks as a Giant, Sanchez has had knee and shoulder issues, while Uribe has mostly been pain-free.  Health should be the number one concern when it comes to signing players to multi-year deals… even two-year contracts.

Uribe is also more versatile.  While Sanchez hasn’t played anywhere other than second since 2006, the Giants can play Uribe at second, short, and third.  Versatility is becoming one of those many aspects of baseball that has been undervalued.  (In the way that on-base percentage and defense have been undervalued the last several years.)  Uribe’s versatility also gives the team some leeway to develop their younger infielders.  Uribe can play third to make room for a second baseman, and he play second so someone can play third or first (whichever position Sandoval isn’t playing).  He also, of course, is capable of playing shortstop if Edgar Renteria continues to tail off next year. 

Uribe does all of this while playing very good defense no matter where he’s playing.  He’s only slightly below average at shortstop, but so is Renteria.  Sanchez is a good defender at second, but Uribe is just as good in the field.

As for the offense, it may just be that Uribe will be a better hitter over the next couple of seasons.  This season, Uribe’s OPS is .816, nearly 100 points better than his career mark (.726).  His wOBA is .345 this season compared to a .309 career number.  Maybe Uribe is in a salary drive (although I doubt it) but, perhaps more likely, Uribe is becoming a better hitter and one of the many players more successful in the National League.  I’m not expecting a .816 OPS in the future, but a .780 OPS in 2010 and 2011 isn’t that unrealistic and still above average.     

By comparison, Sanchez is a career .756 OPS hitter, and has a .768 mark this year.  He did have an .851 OPS in his best season in 2006 when he hit .332, but that was when Sanchez was still in his 20’s.  I’m guessing Sanchez’s 2009 offensive numbers are more reflective of his next few seasons.  And, with Sanchez being 32 and 33 the next couple of seasons, the numbers could go down.

In the end, there may not be a huge difference between Uribe and Sanchez offensively in the next few seasons.  However, Uribe’s versatility, defense, health, and clubhouse presence (which continues to get talked up) make him the better option to sign for the next few seasons.  If you factor in that Uribe may be cheaper because so many people in baseball (Sabean?) are still in love with batting average, then he is a MUCH better option.

More notes:

• While I’d like to see John Bowker get more at bats, Eugenio Velez’s versatility has also been very valuable because Velez has improved on his defense so much.  This is where the veteran influence and Giants coaching staff deserves a lot of credit.  Velez is 100 times the defensive player that he was, as recently as a month ago.  Something may have clicked watching his fellow teammates play so well in the field.
• That is why I can understand why Buster Posey is called up to take in this pennant race.  This is a great experience just being around this ballclub because, other than their lack of plate discipline, the Giants do play the game the right way (running the bases and fielding).  However, Bruce Bochy’s reluctance to play Posey unless it’s a blowout game is ridiculous.  This is a player they have touted for his headiness and dedication to the game.  They have built up Posey and called him a professional in so many ways.  Now, he can’t handle a major-league at bat unless the Giants are up or down by 9 or 10 runs?  Is this the way they will handle things with all of their future prospects?  That’s just plain stupid.  I don’t think Posey’s career is going to go into the tank if he strikes out in a big spot.  If that’s the case, then he’s not the player scouts have been praising for the last several months. 
• That’s what makes Bruce Bochy so frustrating.  He obviously runs a good clubhouse, and preaches the little things like defense and base-running.  At the same time, he over-manages when it comes to giving young players a chance.  He also shouldn’t have had Uribe bunting with first and second and nobody out in the tenth inning on Sunday.  Your hottest hitter, and clean-up hitter, in a tie game should have been given a chance to swing the bat.  Especially, with the clutch hits Uribe has had this season.  (For the record, this isn’t second-guessing.  I did say this before Uribe’s at bat in the McCovey Chronicles game thread.) 
• About a month ago, WCB made mention of how we would like to see Jonathan Sanchez use his fastball more often, particularly on two strikes.  Sanchez has been dealing lately (7 ER in 31 IP over five starts), and utilizing his awesome fastball more and more.  It was good to see him shake off Eli Whiteside one inning on Sunday, to throw some high cheese to a Brewers hitter.  Sanchez’s fastball is so devastating when there is two strikes that hitters, with so little time to react, often swing at pitches that are up around their eyes.  Don’t get me wrong, Sanchez has a good overall repertoire, but the fastball is particularly filthy.  Here’s hoping he’s using it more and more down the stretch.  For a guy who has been frustrating to watch at times, Sanchez is now a joy to watch.  If he can find consistent command, he’ll be one of the top five pitchers in the league.  Opponents are now hitting .215 off Sanchez.        
• Of course, Brad Penny is also throwing well right now and his impact on the rotation has been very significant.  Before the Giants had Penny, I was in favor of skipping the fifth starter.  Now, he is giving Tim Lincecum and everyone else an extra day of rest around off-days.  The Giants don’t have to overwork their starters to stay in the race because of Penny’s presence. 
• Penny, however, needs to keep his emotions in check.  That was ridiculous yesterday.  Adrian Gonzalez is a classy guy, and Penny might have started it when he overreacted after a fourth-inning strikeout.  Then, he went way over the line in the sixth.   
• The playoffs are a long ways away and the Giants only have a 29 percent chance of making the playoffs according the numbers.  However, one misconception is that the Giants would pitch Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain twice each in a five-game series.  The Giants would be smart to pitch Zito in Game 3 and Sanchez in Game 4, and saving Lincecum for a potential Game 5.  There just isn’t much difference right now between the starters to justify pitching a few guys on very short rest.    
• The Giants are unlikely to sweep the Rockies again.  (Probably why they need to get this lead down to a game before the series starts on Monday.)  The good news is that the Giants likely won’t have to face Ubaldo Jimenez. 

Monday – Lincecum vs. Jason Hammel

Tuesday – Zito vs. Jose Contreras

Wednesday – Cain vs. Jorge De La Rosa

• I like seeing old video of players that I’ve never seen play before.  We know players like Willie Mays are great, but old video highlights help us understand a player’s greatness that much more.  During the CSN broadcast on Sunday, they showed clips of Mays’ four homer game in Milwaukee’s County Stadium on April 30th, 1961.  With 660 home runs we knew Mays had power, but did anyone catch how far those balls were traveling?  In that game, his third home run landed in some grass area on the fly some 150 feet beyond the outfield fence.  His fourth home run, to left-centerfield, was only three rows away from leaving the stadium.  Unbelievable.    

In many cases, younger players can be better options than the veteran “gamers”, especially when those veterans are already below average players.  Of course, “below average” is a kind phrase to use for most of the Giants hitters.  There are many examples of younger players helping teams in stretch runs, but in the NL West, we don’t have to look much further than the 2007 Rockies.  They were essentially “giving up” on their season when they called up Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales in August.  Of course, those pitchers were instrumental in their amazing September run.  Prospects can make your team better.  They shouldn’t be players who are only given time when your team is out of the race.

Those prospects can only become good major leaguers with experience.  If they’ve dominated Triple-A pitching, they aren’t going to become better major leaguers by continuing to hit off of those same Triple-A pitchers.  John Bowker may be better hitter in the future, but I can concede he is probably a below-average major league hitter right now.  Still, I’d rather have him taking away some at bats from Randy Winn (especially against lefties such as last night), who is also a below-average hitter.  At least, Bowker can get better with the experience. 

I’m not saying the vets shouldn’t play, but this was supposed to be a season where we were going to find out a lot about the Giants positional prospects.  The organization wasn’t really strong in upper-level positional players, but there are still quite a few unknowns within this franchise.  I feel like the Giants have wasted part of this season by not giving enough at bats to guys like Bowker, Kevin Frandsen, Jesus Guzman, Nate Schierholtz (remember when he had 18 at bats through May 1st), and, yes, even Fred Lewis (Bay City Ball’s reasoning for Lewis to play more.).  Odds are, most of these guys won’t ever be everyday major-leaguers, but good organizations find a way to get these type of players enough at bats to find out.  Unfortunately, with the Giants, they’re still unknowns.    

As pointed out at Inside Baggs, the Giants average just 3.58 pitches per plate appearance, which is the lowest in the majors by far.  Of the 16 NL teams, they’re 15th in runs/game, 15th in HR’s, 16th in walks and 16th in on-base percentage.  If the Giants found a way to give guys such as Frandsen, Bowker, and Lewis more at bats, would these numbers be much worse?  I don’t think so.  There’s even a decent chance they may be better. 

Even more frustrating, the Giants didn’t even call up Frandsen when teams were allowed to expand their rosters yesterday.  And, while Sabean and the rest of the brass think its unfathomable, calling up Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner may be the difference between a playing baseball or playing golf in October.  When you’ve got a chance for a championship, you go for it.  I don’t care about affecting one’s service time or hurting veterans feelings.  If calling up Posey and Bumgarner means that the team has to wait until June, instead of May, before calling them up to the major league roster again so the Giants can steal an extra year of service time, then so be it. 

Think of this scenario:  The Giants wait until May before they call up Posey and Bumgarner, the team misses the playoffs, and when the team calls up these players in 2010, both immediately take off and adjust smoothly to major-league competition.  Giants fans will be ticked off that these guys weren’t allowed to make an impact in the previous year’s pennant chase.  And, even worse, the Sabean-Bochy tandem may be awarded contract extensions this offseason.  The same guys who continually rewarded veteran players with at bats despite mediocre offense from those veteran players.                    

Renteria, Winn, Molina, and Aaron Rowand all deserve their share of at bats, but this year, they’ve been given too many at bats.  While it’s a positive that these guys have mostly played solid defense, they should have been given more days off earlier in the season in favor of younger players.  If they were, maybe they would be even more rested for this stretch drive. 

This has been touched on at McCovey Chronicles, but even more frustrating for Giants fans, is the Giants organization lack of patience for younger players.  Eugenio Velez got off to a hot start upon his recall, and that earned him plenty of extra at bats.  Bowker didn’t and he was back in Triple-A before he knew it.  You may not want to hear another Rockies example, but Carlos Gonzalez was scuffling with a .188 average on July 6th.  Now, after over 500 career plate appearances, he looks like a future star.  The Rockies didn’t demote him to the Pacific Coast League, where he has already dominated.  They kept him on their major league roster, and now it’s paying major dividends. 

Can you imagine if Pablo Sandoval got off to a 4-for-45 start last season?  He might have struggled to get consistent at bats on last year’s and this year’s team.  The only reason the Giants committed to him everyday was because he started raking right away.  Sandoval is a rare case, because most hitters take time before they learn major league pitching. 

It’s actually pretty simple.  The more major league at bats a team’s young hitting prospects receive, they will either become better players or at least a team will find out about their long-term chances.  In baseball economics, because of service time, younger players that perform well are extremely valuable.  The Giants organization’s lack of patience and commitment with younger players may cost them this season but, more importantly, has also hurt their chances in 2010 and 2011.            

Standing silently, as the marathon and torture continued, I kept asking, “Why am I setting myself up for disappointment again?” 

A big part of me wanted to leave, but I couldn’t because of that stupid “hope” that every sports fan has, even those of us that are the most cursed.  That “hope” that tells me, if the Giants win, this will be one of the most memorable and biggest wins I’ve ever witnessed.   

I went to all nine Giants games in Colorado this year, and many others throughout the last decade… and it rarely ever ends well.   

I hate Coors Field.  I don’t care how “nice” of a park it is, it’s a house of horrors for any die-hard Giants fan that frequents games there.  Not only do the Giants usually lose, but they find a way to stomach-punch me almost every game in Colorado.

That’s why, through the 11th, 12th, 13th, and 14th innings, I was pacing the concourse.  In the past, I always stayed in my seat until the bitter end.  This time, however, I wanted to do something different because, after the agonizing last two days, I wasn’t in the mood to watch Rockies fans celebrate around me again.  I wanted a quick getaway when things turned sour.  Sure enough, I was almost out the main gate before Ryan Spilborghs’ ball even landed.        

As I was on my way to my car (walking at about a 45mph clip), I kept thinking about Ray Kinsella’s character in Field of Dreams… when he asks, “What’s in it for me?” to Shoeless Joe. 

Ray built a baseball field in the middle of his Iowa cornfield, traveled around the country, tracking down Moonlight Graham and Terrence Mann, all while his family is about to go bankrupt… and Mann is the one who is rewarded with a trip through the cornfields with all of the legends?

I didn’t blame Ray.  He made sacrifices and deserved something for his time and effort.     

So, I ask, after last night’s loss, which was one of the most devastating losses I’ve ever seen the Giants suffer, “What’s in it for us?!?!”

We’ve made sacrifices.  We’ve supported this team through thick and, mostly thin.  I challenge anyone to find another group of fans who have suffered as much as Giants fans in the last 20 plus seasons.  

Whether it was Candy Maldonado losing a ball in the lights, or not winning a division despite winning 103 games, or Edgar’s base hit in ‘97, or Pudge tagging out J.T., or Scott Spiezio’s three-run homer, or Steve Finley’s grand slam, nobody has suffered more heartbreak. 

The Giants are like the ex-girlfriend that you took forever to get over.  The one who plays with your emotions because she can.  The difference, however, is that we eventually get over that ex-girlfriend.  When it comes to our favorite sports teams, though, we can’t get over it.  I think I may get over this stuff the day the Giants win a world championship.  Yet, I continue to wonder if that day will ever happen. 

Let’s face it, if you’re a Giants fan, the thought of quitting has at least partially crossed your mind.  True fans will never let this happen, of course.  We’ve had enough agony to last a lifetime but we’re not abandoning our team because we think there has to be some reward for our troubles.  And, right now, you may hate this team (or, at least Bruce Bochy, Justin Miller, and/or Merkin Valdez).  You may be thinking that you can’t even watch tonight’s game against the Diamondbacks.   

That talk may be tough but, in the end, we’ll be back, and the Giants will be back in this race.  They’ll make things interesting.  You know why?  Because they aren’t done torturing and teasing us.  They will be back in this thing, just in time so that we can believe again, so they can play with our emotions.  (Remember when everyone thought they were done when they were swept by the Braves, ironically from August 23-25, 1993.  They fell 4 1/2 back, and then came back in time to let us down on the season’s final day.)  When that time comes, there will be another Spilborghs in the batters box.  Maybe it will be Kyle Blanks… or Ryan Roberts… or Jeff Baker.  And it will happen again.  They aren’t done with us yet.  It’s the Giants way. 

In the meantime, I’ll be back watching them tonight, perhaps setting myself up for another disappointment.  Whether it’s coming tonight, tomorrow, or another month from now.  I don’t know any other way.  I’m stuck with this team as much as they’re stuck with me.     

Just once, though, I want to walk through that cornfield… or, at least, play catch with Ray Kinsella’s dad… because this feeling really fucking blows.       

Time to vent below:

• Ray Ratto may think that we’re just second-guessers, but what Giants fan would approve of a move to Justin Miller after his disastrous performance on Saturday?  We all were angry when Miller was summoned.  Miller’s ball is so flat and hittable that Medders should have been allowed at least two more batters.  Three years ago, Medders threw three scoreless innings and picked up a win in the Diamondbacks 18-inning victory at Coors Field.  He threw more pitches last night than he did in that 2006 outing, but there is a track record here.  Would it have hurt Bochy if he at least let Medders face Iannetta?  After Medders got Barmes to pop up, he deserved that much.  An awfully managed series by Bochy, starting with Friday night’s game, where he took Jonathan Sanchez out too early.
• One thing that sucks about a game like this is that a lot of Giants were starting to put together gritty performances.  For all the criticism we give them, Bengie Molina and Randy Winn were really stepping up their at bats late.  Eugenio Velez’s hit was special, and Brian Wilson showed guts.  All of it wasted…
• On the other hand, Aaron Rowand was absolutely awful.  I’m not as mad as others about Bochy not bunting him in the ninth.  Our lineup rarely ever comes through whether we’re bunting them or not.  Bochy should play more small-ball, but we’re a bad offense either way.
• I don’t want to hear how none of this seemed conceivable in March.  It doesn’t make me feel any better.  It wasn’t conceivable for the Rockies, either.  That’s baseball. 
• Most disappointing for me, however, was a Giants team that didn’t play the same defense in Denver that they’ve been playing all season.  Too many bad plays, with Ryan Garko’s cutoff among the most unforgivable.   
• Tim Kawakami can give it a rest with his talk that fate has been on the Giants side.  He is really reaching when he points out players that have missed Giants’ series.  Kawakami always has an angle, but this is part of baseball.  If fate was on the Giants side, and not the Rockies, why has Freddy Sanchez missed the last eight games, including the biggest four of the year in a park (over 1.000 OPS) that he owns?  Why does Pablo Sandoval go down with an injury in the biggest game?  Why do the Giants miss the Rockies fifth starter, while the Rockies miss Matt Cain?  These are all things that we won’t ever hear Kawakami mention because it ruins his angle.  I’m not saying the Giants have had good luck or bad luck this year.  I’m saying that in a 162-game season, all teams are going to miss players in series’ here and there. 
• The Rockies fans who stayed throughout the night are the true Rockies fans.  All 15,000 of them.  Unfortunately, in the next few months, they will have a few million bandwagoners who will all be proclaiming that they are also true fans.  I was amazed how many people got up after the Giants three-run fourteenth… especially with the recent history of these teams in this park.  Pathetic.   
• Obviously, the Giants are in dire need of a 5-1 or 6-0 home stand.  We’ll see. 

Other Thoughts:

• It does help that one of the best hitters in baseball since early June, Troy Tulowitzki, doesn’t play because of the flu bug.  Tulo is the second best shortstop in the league.  He’s also a gamer.  I doubt that he’s out tonight, too.
• While the walks are still frustrating, it was so nice to see Jonathan Sanchez use his great fastball with two strikes.  So often, we’ve seen Sanchez jimmy-jack around with breaking stuff and trying to paint corners (while missing badly).  Last night, the high fastball was fantastic.  We need to see more of it. 
• I wish Bochy didn’t pinch-hit for Sanchez in the sixth.  At 91 pitches, Sanchez could have easily went at least one and maybe two more innings.  It also would have helped his confidence that much more.  
• Aaron Rowand’s home run was HUGE.  It seems like that was the Giants first three-run homer of the year.  Whatever it was, it made things easier on Sanchez, who responded with a dominant bottom of the fourth inning.
• Eugenio Velez is still a nightmare in left.  He’s like Timmy Lupus out there.

     

• Velez is also in a major funk at the plate.  Sit him down, please. 
• Don’t look now, but Edgar Renteria is 13 for his last 31.  Okay, I’m not feeling any better about him, either.  He does have only one RBI during that stretch.  Baby steps.
• The Rockies are usually sound so the three errors were surprising.  We can’t count on that the rest of the series.
• Jeremy Affeldt has been unbelievable in double play situations.  That’s 16 this year after getting Helton to 1-2-3.  Remarkable.  Came at a great time when the scoreboard was instructing Rockies fans to “Make Some Noise!”  Could there be anything more obnoxious and annoying than a scoreboard instructing fans to make noise?  What kind of Mickey Mouse operation are they running at Coors?  

Tonight’s lineup should look like:

2B Sanchez (If healthy, owns De La Rosa)

1B Garko

3B Sandoval

CF Rowand (why Bochy doesn’t ever hit Rowand cleanup is beyond me)

C  Molina

RF Schierholtz

LF Winn (bad against lefties, but has hit De La Rosa)

SS Renteria

Too bad Bochy doesn’t read WCB.  He could learn something from my great lineup strategy.

The mainstays led the Giants, writes Andrew Baggarly. 

According to Bochy, Rowand’s homer loosened everybody up. 

Freddy Sanchez is very apologetic to Giants fans about his injuries. 

The team is going to honor Jeff Kent, writes John Shea.  Anyone that plays for the Dodgers, after a successful career as a Giant, is dead to me.  Screw Jeff Kent.  Yeah, I said it.    

A’s

Homers ruined Gio Gonzalez’s night. 

It’s an odd story as Justin Duchscherer has clinical depression.  (I didn’t know he was a Raiders fan? Okay, bad joke.) 

49ers

I could run down what to look for tonight in the Niners game against the Raiders, but I’ll let John Crumpacker do it.

Alex Smith gets his turn, writes Daniel Brown.

This start matters to Smith, writes Crumpacker. 

This is his last best shot, writes Tim Kawakami. 

Matt Barrows has more on Smith in his Friday notes.  

Cam Inman offers some insight into tonight’s game. 

Raiders

David White on what to look for from a Raider perspective. 

In case you haven’t seen this interesting story on the Raiders and there many incidents, here you go.  

Randy Hanson’s dream has crumbled into a nightmare, writes Steve Corkran. 

Colleges

A Cal training camp report from Jonathan Okanes. 

Jon Wilner’s preseason Top 25 has Cal 11th. 

Other Items

Bruce Jenkins on an alternative to bean ball wars. 

Games Today

Giants (Joe Martinez) at Rockies (Jorge De La Rosa)  5:10 PST

A’s (Trevor Cahill) vs. Tigers (Armando Galarraga)   6:05 PST

49ers vs. Raiders  5:15 PST

If you factor in how talented this year’s Rockies team is, the odds of the Giants doing anything better than a four-game split is very unlikely.  Predicting any single series is difficult in baseball (see Reds at AT&T), but the Giants, a bad offensive team, don’t match up well when they have to engage in slugfests with the opposition, and Coors Field is a park made for offense.  Even with the humidor, it’s still the best hitters park in baseball.  For the Giants to do well in this series, they are going to need some unexpected offensive performances.

The pitching matchups in this series are particularly unkind to the Giants.  I’ve made mention before that Bruce Bochy should have taken advantage of last week’s off-day by making sure Matt Cain will pitch in this series.  Despite a 2-0 record (the only two wins by the Giants in Colorado this year) and an 0.69 ERA at Coors Field this year, Cain won’t go in this four-game set.  That hurts.

Let’s preview each game:

Tonight      Jonathan Sanchez vs. Aaron Cook

Sanchez has been terrible at Coors Field in his brief career.  In 8 games, 4 starts, Sanchez is just 1-2 with a 7.43 ERA.  He’s allowed 19 walks in his 26.2 innings.  Last month, it was typical Sanchez in his start at Coors.  He pitched three hitless innings, and then ran into trouble in the fourth inning, allowing a three-run homer to Troy Tulowitzki.  The wheels came off in a 5 ER, 5 IP performance.

The second time through the lineup always seems to give Sanchez trouble, and it’s imperative, as always the case, that he throw strikes.  Sanchez is one of the toughest pitchers to hit (.226 batting average against) and he needs to be aggressive tonight.  The most agonizing thing about Sanchez is when he doesn’t go after guys when he gets to 0-2 or 1-2 on a hitter.  Sanchez doesn’t have the command to miss the strike zone effectively.  Just go after them for crying out loud!  It’s a patient Rockies team (Notice how the young Rockies hitters take pitches.  Why can’t we do that?) that will be waiting for Sanchez to get wild.

Rockies hitters vs. Sanchez

Cook is the most hittable Rockies pitcher throwing in this series.  He’s coming off an awful start Sunday in Florida and, in his career, has had trouble pitching effectively and staying healthy this late in the year.  Against the Giants he is 7-8 with a 4.70 ERA, and has allowed a .304 batting average against.

Giants hitters vs. Cook

Saturday   Joe Martinez vs. Jorge De La Rosa

In my opinion, this is the worst matchup for the Giants.  Martinez has never faced the Rockies, and has done okay as the Giants fifth starter, but this is the best lineup he’s faced, and it doesn’t bode well for a guy who hasn’t pitched more than 5 innings yet in his first three starts.

De La Rosa owns the Giants to the tune of a 4-0 record and a 2.36 ERA in his five starts.  The Giants are hitting just .216 against him.  Add in the fact that De La Rosa has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball (He’s won 11 of his last 14 starts and has allowed more than three runs in just three of those starts), and the Giants may be in trouble.

Giants hitters vs. De La Rosa

Sunday   Tim Lincecum vs. Ubaldo Jimenez

One of the best pitching matchups of the season, although it won’t be billed as such because the Yankees and Red Sox aren’t involved.  Lincecum, surprisingly has not pitched that well against the Rockies, with as 3-2 record and a 4.40 ERA (.272 average against).  The Rockies again use their patience pretty well, drawing 21 BB’s in Lincecum’s 47 innings against.  At Colorado, Lincecum is 2-0 with a 4.18 ERA.  Last season, Lincecum and Jimenez dueled in a great game that was ultimately won by the Rockies (1-0) in the bottom of the ninth against the Giants bullpen.

Rockies hitters vs. Lincecum

Jimenez, in seven career starts aginst the Giants has held them to just a .199 batting average against, and has a 2-2 mark with a 2.44 ERA.  Plus, he is also one of the hottest, and frankly one of the best, pitchers in baseball.  Jimenez will likely continue his impressive run where he has gone at least 6 innings in 21 consecutive starts.  Lincecum, similar to his last start against the Dodgers, is going to have to come through with one of his best starts, and not allow more than one or two runs, to beat Jimenez.

Giants hitters vs. Jimenez

Monday   Barry Zito vs. Jason Marquis

Zito has pitched well against the Rockies and in Coors Field in his limited outings.  In four starts at Coors, he is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA and has allowed just 21 hits in 27 innings.  In eight career starts against the Rockies, Zito is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA and has allowed just a .187 batting average against.

Rockies hitters vs. Zito

Marquis has been a pleasant surprise for the Rockies and, like his teammates Jimenez and Cook, wins games thanks in large part to an impressive groundball/flyball ratio(1.94 -fourth in baseball, Cook is second at 2.25, and Jimenez is 8th at 1.81; all five Rockies starters have better ratios than any of the Giants starters).

Against the Giants, Marquis has owned them in eight career starts, with a 4-2 record, a 2.52 ERA, and a .193 batting average against.  The Giants need another superb effort from Zito.

Giants hitters vs. Marquis

Tonight’s Lineup Should Be:

LF Lewis

RF Schierholtz

2B Sanchez (if healthy)

3B Sandoval

CF Rowand

1B Ishikawa

c  Molina

SS Renteria

Winn, despite his hot streak, should sit for a night and then should play the rest of the series.  Rowand should sit tomorrow (and maybe Monday, too), allowing Winn to play center, and Velez in left.  Renteria, because of good numbers against Cook, gets another chance tonight, but if he doesn’t hit, should sit for the rest of the series.  Schierholtz should play at least 3 of the 4 games.

Summary:

This series particularly doesn’t look good in the first two games for the Giants because Sanchez and Martinez match up poorly with the Rockies.  Lincecum and Zito give the Giants a better chance in the final two games, but in those games, the Giants have to take on pitchers who have owned them in their careers.

I know there are many who aren’t fans (I’m not a big one myself) of Fred Lewis, but they could use some offense from him this series.  he is a .368 hitter with a 1.050 OPS in his career at Coors.  Sanchez needs to be healthy this series because his a .403 hitter with a 1.028 OPS in his career in Colorado.

As for the Rockies, the catchers always kill the Giants.  Iannetta (.337, 1.141 OPS) and Yorvit Torrealba (.313, .926) have great numbers.  Helton (.332, .977) has always hit the Giants well and Carlos Gonzalez (6 HR’s in 9 games) is one of the hottest hitters in baseball.

A bad contract will always be a bad contract, and there weren’t many Giants fans who were happy with the Barry Zito contract.  Actually, there weren’t many fans who weren’t (yes, two negatives, I can do that) disgusted with the Zito contract in the winter of 2006.  Even though that contract will always be an awful one until Zito gets bought out after 2013, it won’t be a crippling contract if the Giants can receive at least 60% return on their investment.

In my opinion, a crippling contract is when a team gets zero, or close to zero, production from a high-priced player (think Carl Pavano or Darren Dreifort).  In baseball, teams with higher payrolls like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers can afford more crippling contracts than others.  In Zito’s case, because of his durability, the Giants have received some production.  It may be hard to believe, but according to FanGraphs, the Giants have received $7.1 million and $6.6 million value from Zito over the 2007 and 2008 seasons.  Their value charts are based on the amount of wins a player provides over a replacement player (WAR).

This season, Zito is on pace to provide about $11.6-11.7 million value to the Giants.  No, I wouldn’t even pay $10 million/season to Zito, even with that value.  The key is to find as many Matt Cain’s and Tim Lincecum’s as possible.  Players who provide a lot more value than their contracts are worth.  The Giants can get away with Zito, in large part, because Lincecum was worth almost $34 million last year, and will likely be worth more this season.  Zito, at his current pace, may only provide 60-65% value on his $18.5 million salary.

That’s a bad contract, but it does allow them to still build a contending team.  As much as people want to blame Zito for the last two seasons, he was simply a poor pitcher on a bad team.  They weren’t going to be good even if Zito returned to Cy Young form.  Zito’s contract just means the Giants have to be much smarter with their money, and future contracts.  It also means that the Giants need to get reasonable return, such as 60-70%, on his contract.  That would allow them to forgo future free-agent pitchers (not that they should ever pay a free-agent pitcher the contract they gave Zito) and also give them a better opportunity to contend.

For a comparison, all we have to do is look at the Rockies.  There are many reasons for their contention in the playoff chase, such as a surprisingly very effective pitching staff and the second best shortstop in baseball, but they also are getting much better return on their bad Todd Helton investment.  Last year, they received about 40% return on his contract.  This year, they’re on pace to get about 75% return on Helton’s deal.  Again, still a bad deal, but a deal that isn’t crippling them.

Any time a fan looks at the Giants future salary commitments, that Zito contract is always going to be an eyesore.  I can’t stand it, but it isn’t going away.  Zito’s recent success since the All-Star break (2.36 ERA), however, gives hope that he can be a Top 30 pitcher in the National League in future seasons.  Of course, his best months as a Giant have been August and September, so this recent run isn’t terribly surprising.  (When I outlined reasons for Giants fans to be optimistic in late July, I mentioned Zito’s late season success.)  The increased fastball velocity is surprising, however.  When Zito is 35 in 2013, he likely won’t be throwing in the high 80’s.  He also will have a hard time giving the Giants 60% value on his contract and it may be a crippling deal at that point.  But for this year, 2010, 2011, and maybe 2012, he can still can’t be an effective pitcher, or an above-average pitcher, and actually give the Giants some return on their poor investment.

I apologize, but no links today.  If you’re desperate, you may find some Michael Vick and Brett Favre coverage on ESPN.

Barry Zito (8-10, 4.40) vs. Bobby Parnell (2-4, 3.94)

Giants Notes

• Coming off first losing homestand (2-4) since May 11-17 (3-4 vs. Nationals & Mets)
• 23-32 on the road
• 16-12 vs. NL East
• In their last 15 games, the Giants are just 3-12 against the Mets (1-3 this year).
• The Giants are happy to not be playing in Shea (Just 4-13 since 2003, 11-26 since 1998)    

Mets Notes

• 30-25 at home
• 11-17 vs. NL West
• Have outscored the opposition 43-24 in the first inning at home
• .283 average with runners in scoring position
• Have struck out the fewest times in the majors.

Barry Zito

• 3-1, 2.32 ERA in last 5 starts since the All-Star break. 
• Opponents have hit .254 against him this year after a .270 mark last season.  
• In his career, Zito is a 29-18 with a 2.98 ERA in August
• In the last two years, Zito has pitched his best for the Giants over August (3.76 ERA) and September (3.71 ERA).  
• 4-6, 4.88 ERA on the road (11 starts)
• 2-1, 4.03 ERA career versus Mets.
• Below are Zito’s four starts vs. Mets:  

Zito vs. Mets hitters

Bobby Parnell

• Making just his second start (first start at home)
• Has 54 relief appearances this year.
• Made his first major league start on Saturday at San Diego and picked up the loss(2.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, K)
• In his career against the Giants (2 appearances), Parnell is 1-0 with 2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, BB, 3 K

Parnell vs. Giants hitters

Giants vs. the Mets

• Sanchez  - .286, .722 OPS
• Lewis -  .179, .615 OPS
• Sandoval - .412, 1.000 OPS in 17 AB’s
• Molina - .271, .812 OPS
• Renteria - .309, .771 OPS
• Rowand - .238, .737 OPS
• Winn - .235, .719 OPS

Giants Streaks

• Velez has hit in 16 of his last 17 games (29-for-73) 
• Sanchez is 13 for 39 (.333) as a Giant with .802 OPS
• Molina is 2 for his last 14, but 9 for his last 28 with 3 HR’s.
• Sandoval has just 1 HR in his last 12 games.
• Renteria has only 2 RBI’s in his last 28 games.
• Rowand hasn’t homered since July 2 and Winn hasn’t gone deep since April 25.

Mets vs. the Giants

• Wright - .378, 1.039 OPS, 4 HR’s in 127 AB’s
• Sheffield .333, 1.077 OPS, 34 HR’s in 429 AB’s
• Tatis - .244, .856 OPS
• Castillo - .264, .665 OPS
• Francouer - .261, .686 OPS

Mets Streaks

• Francouer is hitting .311 in August
• Pagan is only 1 for his last 13, but has 7 triples since July 11th and 12 RBI’s in last 10 starts
• Castillo has a .459 OBP since July 5th
• Wright is 4 for 18 with 0 RBI’s in last five games
• Sheffield hasn’t homered since June 29th
• Santos is 1 for his last 15

Even though he was an awful head coach, Nolan’s idea to shut down the opposing running game early was a good idea.  The problem was that his offense spent such little time on the field, his defense eventually became tired, and would give up a lot of rushing yards in the second half.  Nolan’s philosophy also exposed areas in his pass defense.

As the Broncos defensive coordinator, we have to believe that Nolan will be looking to stack the line of scrimmage to stop the 49ers ground attack.  He might have a good opportunity to do so considering the Jimmy Raye led 49er attack so desperately wants to establish a ground game this year, and also because Frank Gore won’t play.  In Denver, there is so much pessimism regarding the Broncos defense, because of their terrible performance a year ago (3rd worst in the NFL in points allowed), there is no doubt that Nolan has motivation to restore fans’ faith in the team.  Nolan also wants his defense to feel better about themselves.  I doubt another defense in the NFL has gone through as much criticism and scrutiny as the Broncos defense has in the last year.  Stopping the run, and forcing the Niners to beat them through the air, may be the best possible way for Nolan to restore his players’ confidence. 

For these reasons, I’m not going to go overboard if the Niners tear up the Broncos pass defense tonight, however, there would be some (emphasize on “some”) cause for concern if Shaun Hill and/or Alex Smith aren’t effective throwing the ball.  This is still a Broncos defense that is very short on talent.  Former Niner Ronnie Fields is probably Denver’s best defensive lineman (as a nose tackle), and we know that Fields would have trouble making the 49ers team this year.  (And, it’s not like the Niners have great defensive lineman on their roster.)  For all the struggles the Niners have in the pass-rush department, the Broncos have more problems when it comes to finding true pass-rushers in their 3-4 defense.  If you factor in the Broncos are trying to work in eight new starters on defense, they obviously should have some issues establishing cohesiveness.  

Putting all of this together, Hill and Smith should have success throwing the ball tonight even though this is the first preseason game under a new coordinator.  If they do throw the ball well, it won’t mean the Niners will have a good offense.  If they don’t move the ball, however, we’re going to have some definite questions heading into the next couple of preseason games.           

Hill starts, as Daniel Brown and John Crumpacker write. 

A look at the Michael Crabtree contract impasse from Matt Maiocco. 

A game preview of each position from Kevin Lynch. 

Maiocco has notes on practice 23. 

Matt Barrows briefly addressed the right tackle situation. 

Isaac Bruce is playing a role in generating more football interest in the UK, as Barrows notes.  

Raiders

In the rout of the Cowboys, it was a good start for JaMarcus Russell and Chaz Schilens, as Steve Corkran writes. 

The quarterbacks flashed their arms, writes David White. 

These are the same Raiders as we knew them back in December, writes Ray Ratto. 

Some Raider truths were exposed, writes Jerry McDonald. 

The Raiders also backed up their word and brought the pressure, writes White. 

Just give Darren McFadden the ball, writes Cam Inman. 

In Corkran’s notes, Darrius Heyward-Bey had one catch. 

McDonald, Paul Gutierrez, and White all offer their postgame thoughts. 

Giants

Today is the one-year anniversary of Pablo Sandoval’s major league debut, as Andrew Baggarly writes.

Catching the Dodgers is unrealistic, writes Bruce Jenkins. 

Jenkins is happy that Ron Wotus left Tim Lincecum in the ninth inning on Wednesday. 

El Lefty Malo looks at the best games of the year. 

A’s

Nomar isn’t rocking the boat, writes Curtis Pashelka. 

Colleges

A Bears training camp report from yesterday. 

Cal’s YouTube dancing star has to prove he has moves on the field, too. 

Other Items

The Eagles are a natural fit for Michael Vick, writes Gwen Knapp. 

The fuse is lit in the Vick experiment, as Kawakami writes.

Tiger roared out of the gate, writes Ron Kroichick. 

Despite her looks, Gina Carano proves she’s a knockout in the ring first, writes Tom Fitzgerald.

Games Today

Giants (Barry Zito) at Mets (Bobby Parnell)  4:10 PST

A’s (Brett Anderson) vs. White Sox (Jose Contreras)  7:05 PST

49ers vs. Broncos  7:00 PST

What is concerning me, however, is that Bochy doesn’t plan on pitching Lincecum in New York when Lincecum should pitch Monday if he receives his normal four days rest.  Even worse, by pitching Cain Saturday instead of tomorrow, Cain will miss the four games in Coors Field against the Giants greatest wild-card competitor.  The Giants are 2-3 in the Rockies home park this year, and both wins were games started by Cain.  He is 2-0 in Colorado and has allowed just one run in 13 innings.  Bochy should make sure that Cain pitches in that series, and all he would have to do is push Zito back a day. 

Zito has been pitching very well, but if Bochy is worried about hurting Zito’s feelings, then he’s missing the boat.   He’s also missing the boat if he is worried about Lincecum or Cain’s right arms.  There is no harm to Cain and Lincecum because they would be pitching on their normal four days rest.  Bochy needs to give his team the best possible opportunity to reach the postseason.

The negative to my rotation proposal is the fifth starter’s spot coming up three times against the Rockies, but that may happen anyway with Bochy’s current model.  Hopefully, the third time when the fifth starter’s spot comes up, Randy Johnson will be healthy. 

The positives do greatly outweigh the negatives, however.  With 48 games left, the Giants could ensure that 31 of those games will be started by their best three pitchers.  Plus, if there is a need for a one-game playoff, the Giants could pitch Zito on a full four days rest, or Lincecum on three days rest.  My biggest concern is that Bochy isn’t even thinking about the off days and how he can take advantage of the schedule for the rest of the year.  Considering the Giants playoff chances are likely going to be going down to the final week, Bochy should be thinking about every scenario with this year’s schedule.  

THE WAY THE ROTATION SHOULD LOOK FOR THE REST OF THE SEASON

Yesterday’s Win:

• I told you Guillermo Mota is terrible!  As frustrated as I was with Gary Darling’s awful umpiring, I was relieved when Mota finally came into the game.  What a stupid pitch to throw on 0-2.  J.T. Snow was clearly stunned in the studio when trying to describe Mota’s thinking.  I was hoping Mota would pitch twice in the series, but I’ll settle for once.
• One of the aspects of the Giants that I have been adamant about is that most players play the game the right way.  I particularly appreciate the hustle that I see on a daily basis.  Pablo Sandoval is one who usually hustles on every popup and groundball.  Yesterday, however, the Panda admired his deep flyball to left, and settled for a double, when he should have had a triple.  That can’t happen again.  I’ve said before that the Panda is great to have on the team because he’s one of those guys, when you go to the game with your son, you can tell them to watch the Panda, and the way he plays the game.  Yesterday, on that one play, he didn’t play the game the right way.  Knowing Sandoval and the way he carries himself, I don’t think we’ll see that again. 
• Because I’m a baseball dork, I record the MLB Network throughout the late afternoon and evening.  After watching my recordings the past few days, it has been interesting to hear Vin Scully’s version.  No one will say it, and Scully won’t admit it, because he wants to believe he is as objective as possible (He doesn’t even like Russ Hodges’ call on Bobby Thomson’s home run, because he felt Hodges was too excited.), but Scully is definitely biased against the Giants.  In the ninth inning yesterday, he said that he could clearly see that Furcal was safe at first.  Of course, this is contrary to the video where Furcal was CLEARLY OUT.  Get it together, Scully.  You’re lying to your viewers.
• Great job by Brian Wilson.  He didn’t let the Blake situation get the best of him in a tight game, and was outstanding.  Lincecum deserved the win, but Wilson wasn’t a vulture by any means. 

Yesterday’s game was nutty, as John Shea writes. 

It was a “must-win”, writes Carl Steward. 

Sandoval admitted to his mental blunders yesterday. 

A brutal day took an impressive turn for Juan Uribe, writes Gary Peterson. 

If you want drama, this is your club, as Scott Ostler writes. 

The Giants stashed Rich Aurilia back on the DL.

The Rockies may be a bigger concern than the Dodgers, writes John Shea. 

A’s

The A’s have won three straight series, writes Susan Slusser. 

It was a game of cat-and-mouse, writes Curtis Pashelka.

49ers

The “taser offense” was unveiled, as Matt Maiocco notes… as does Daniel Brown.  

The taser is their wildcat, writes John Crumpacker. 

Nate Davis got a crack in the two-minute offense, notes Matt Barrows. 

The defense held, writes Maiocco.

According to Tim Kawakami’s source, the Michael Crabtree holdout will last into September… that and other notes from Kawakami and Brown.    

Raiders

The battle for roster spots begins tonight, writes Steve Corkran. 

It’s the beginning of the third-string quarterback battle, as David White writes.  

Will the Raiders blitz, asks Phil Barber.  

Colleges

Best case-worst case scenario for the Golden Bears from ESPN’s Ted Miller. 

A Cal training camp report, from Jonathan Okanes. 

Jon Wilner has the five toughest and the five softest schedules in the Pac-10.  

Other Items

Cam Inman on yesterday’s US Soccer loss.  I’m so disgusted, I don’t even feel like writing about it.   

Kerri Walsh is back playing volleyball, as Elliott Almond writes. 

Game Today

Raiders vs. Cowboys  7:00 PST

Don’t get me wrong, I’m still optimistic.  I was just pumped up for this series, thinking the Giants were ready to beat L.A. on our home turf.  Losing the first two is so deflating, I didn’t even want to wake up this morning.  I can’t even look my dog in the eye anymore.  Gawd, I hate the Dodgers… and although, I’m not giving up on catching them, I’m disgusted because we were holding that card, the “6 of the 9 head-to-head games left at AT&T”, in our back pocket.   Well, now it’s 4 of 7, and the Giants HAVE to win today to have any long-shot at the division

And… Then… There’s the wild card.  “Wild Card” is a couple of dirty words that are tough to acknowledge for any die-hard baseball fan (McCovey Chronicles notes as much), but we do pay attention to it.  The Wild Card is like a drunk relative that no one wants to talk about or confront, but we know of their presence, and we know in the end, that drunk relative is capable of some very solid entertainment (or in the wild card’s case, a postseason).

Okay, maybe I’m reaching…  but I’m still optimistic.

On to last night’s notes:

• As inept as the Giants are offensively, I didn’t envision this team getting completely shut down by Randy Wolf and Hiroki Kuroda.  I was thinking/hoping 3 runs in 6 innings wouldn’t be bad.  Of course, no Giants hitter works the count, so those guys can work deep into games.
• Speaking of not working the count, and I know he’s the best hitter, who also thrives on swinging early in the count, but Pablo Sandoval’s patience has been worse the last month or so.  There was a time in June when he was showing patience (9 walks in 11 games), and it looked like he was turning a corner.  Now, he’s hacking again and has walked just 3 times in his last 17 games.  I wonder if these free-swinging stories about him from SI are getting to his head.  Because to be a great hitter, he needs to eventually draw more walks.
• I’m glad Joe Torre usually hits Matt Kemp seventh or eighth.  Talk about a guy coming into his own as a hitter.  And someone who already tracks down every flyball in center.
• Did Brian Sabean envision his prized second base acquisition not playing in a game against his team’s biggest rivals?  These injuries to Freddy Sanchez lead to serious questions, not only for this year, but for next year, as well.  There is no way Sabean should keep Sanchez beyond 2010.
• Unless he really works at it in winter league and in spring training, Eugenio Velez is never going to be a decent second baseman.  That was awful last night… and the sad thing is, every Giants fan knew at some point, that Velez was going to make a huge blunder in the field.  We just didn’t know when.  If he’s strictly going to be a leftfielder for his career, then he has to be a really good hitter, because most leftfielders are.
• The bad play in the field is aggravating for Giants fans, because the team’s calling card all season has been outstanding defense, and there have been some miserable plays made on this homestand.
• And, enough with the love-fest that some Dodgers players and Torre have for Willie Mays.  Did you see all those hugs last night?  It’s like watching that douche bag who’s always hitting on your girlfriend, hugging her and embracing her as if they’re long-lost lovers/friends.  Stay away from my girlfriend and my Willie Mays!
• Please, Timmy Franchise, step up today and give us your best start of the year… in what is the biggest start of your young career.

The links:

The Giants were pummeled, writes Andrew Baggarly.

Can’t be mad at Bill Hahn for this one, as Henry Schulman writes.

The team is banged up, notes Schulman.

Rich Aurilia has been given a reprieve… Sigh.

Ray Ratto goes overboard again, saying that some fans use Aurilia as someone who “encapsulates the Giants offensive woes”.  This team has struggles with or without him.  The contention of most Giants fans are that his 117 plate appearances should have gone to a younger player.

The Giants hopes only go so far, writes Gary Peterson.

At Inside Baggs, Baggarly says he wouldn’t be surprised if there are a few beanballs today.

Schulman asks if we would let Zito go in a waiver claim.  Even though Zito is a good August and September pitcher, this is obviously a no-brainer.  Of course, you let him go.  Zito is maybe a $5 million pitcher, getting paid almost $20 million.

The Giants were too anxious in the opener, according to Bruce Jenkins.

El Lefty Malo says calm down.

McCovey Chronicles has some reasonable concerns regarding the organizational philosophy.

Last night’s minor league lines.

A’s

Trevor Cahill pitched well, but it wasn’t enough, as Susan Slusser writes.

Cahill was hurt by an innocent roller, writes Curtis Pashelka.

Justin Duchscherer may pitch Friday and throw 80 pitches.  I still think he could be a major help to a contender down the stretch.

Dallas Braden doesn’t look like he’ll be ready Sunday when he is eligible to come off the DL.

49ers

Alex Smith isn’t looking to revive his feud with Mike Nolan, writes Daniel Brown.

Kory Sheets is ready to challenge Thomas Clayton, as Matt Maiocco writes.

Sheets awaits his chance, writes Brown.

A review of all defensive players from Maiocco.

John Crumpacker has a story on a longshot.

The defense was blitz-happy in the first practice of the day.

Kevin Lynch’s Tuesday notes.

Aaron Maybin’s camp is blaming Michael Crabtree for their holdout.

Raiders

The Raiders released their first depth chart.

JaMarcus Russell had timing issues, as David White and Jerry McDonald note.

Disconnect remains with the receivers.

White has more on getting exhibition game ready.

Last night’s practice ending was fitting for a bad day, notes White.

The Raiders are blitz-happy, too, writes White.

Thomas Howard thinks John Marshall is going to bring the pressure.

The team is ready to show their improved run defense.

Colleges

A Stanford training camp preview from Jon Wilner.

Wilner has more on the impact of San Jose State’s game with USC.

Yesterday’s Cal practice was the first one with pads.

Other Items

Scott Ostler on athletes who have more loyalty to their shoe companies than their teams.

Lowell High’s Anton Peterlin is acclimating to soccer in England.

The US Soccer team plays in Mexico City, where they have had major struggles.  I cannot understand why the US team flies in the day before the game.  This is like the  Cal game at Maryland last year, except this is worse because the US has to get used to the horrible heat and altitude.

Tiger Woods is all about the chase and the championship, writes Ron Kroichick.

Monte Poole has a story on flyweight Nonito Donaire.

Games Today

Giants (Tim Lincecum) vs. Dodgers (Jeff Weaver)  12:45 PST

A’s (Vin Mazzaro) at Orioles (Jason Berken)  10:35am PST

US Soccer at Mexico  3:30 PST