Analyzing Giants/Rockies Series – Coors Futility Likely Continues

August 21st, 2009

If you factor in how talented this year’s Rockies team is, the odds of the Giants doing anything better than a four-game split is very unlikely.  Predicting any single series is difficult in baseball (see Reds at AT&T), but the Giants, a bad offensive team, don’t match up well when they have to engage in slugfests with the opposition, and Coors Field is a park made for offense.  Even with the humidor, it’s still the best hitters park in baseball.  For the Giants to do well in this series, they are going to need some unexpected offensive performances.

The pitching matchups in this series are particularly unkind to the Giants.  I’ve made mention before that Bruce Bochy should have taken advantage of last week’s off-day by making sure Matt Cain will pitch in this series.  Despite a 2-0 record (the only two wins by the Giants in Colorado this year) and an 0.69 ERA at Coors Field this year, Cain won’t go in this four-game set.  That hurts.

Let’s preview each game: (more…)

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Trade for Garko: Tough Call, but Maybe a Necessary Risk

July 28th, 2009

I like Grant’s view on McCovey Chronicles because he doesn’t feel comfortable offering an opinion on the Ryan Garko trade.  I was almost in the same boat last night because I wouldn’t have been terribly disappointed if Brian Sabean didn’t make a move.  After further review, I see this as a necessary risk even though I like Scott Barnes.  A 21-year old lefthander (who is 12-3 with a 2.85 ERA in San Jose) that strikes out over a batter an inning is not exactly easy to find.  Plus, he doesn’t walk many guys.  The Giants perhaps needed to take a chance, though.  They do so on someone who could have very good value if he gets hot in the final couple of months.

Garko is a career .860 OPS hitter after the All-Star break.  That’s pretty damn good!  We’re definitely not talking about Shea Hillenbrand here.  Plus, Garko is under control for the next three seasons, as he’s arbitration eligible through 2012.  (That’s why the Giants had to give up more to get Garko than the free-agent eligible Adam LaRoche.)  There’s also the argument that American League players are immediately better players when they come to the National League.  This is often the case (look at freaking Casey Blake!), although if you’re really curious, Garko’s numbers (29 for 129 with 4 HR’s) are not that impressive against the NL in his career.  If you’re really reaching for another positive, Garko is a good postseason hitter in a very limited sample size (.314 avg, .899 OPS in 39 PA’s).

Breaking down the Garko/Travis Ishikawa comparison, you’ll find that Garko over the course of the season is slightly more valuable than Ishikawa.  He might make the Giants a half of a win better in the second half of the season.

A half of a win doesn’t sound like much, but these things (WAR- Wins Above Replacement Player) do have a margin for error.  (more…)

Categories: Oakland Raiders, Saint Mary's Gaels, San Francisco Giants | Tags: 49ers, A's, Brian Sabean, Casey Blake, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Eugenio Velez, Giants, Glen Coffee, Joe Crede, Justin Duchscherer, Maria Sharapova, Mike Singletary, Nnamdi Asomugha, Orlando Hudson, Raiders, Randy Johnson, Roger Goodell, Roger Kieschnick, Ryan Garko, Tim Lincecum, Tommy Everidge, Travis Ishikawa, Trevor Cahill | 1 Comment

The Saint Mary’s Hose Job

March 16th, 2009

In light of the Gaels not making the tournament, I wonder what more could Randy Bennett have done with his schedule to make it more NCAA friendly?  Mike Slive, the Selection Committee char, went as far as saying the committee wanted to “send a message” to bubble teams who didn’t schedule tough games in the non-conference.  The problem is this shouldn’t have been a message to Saint Mary’s, but to teams like Auburn and Penn State.  If Slive and the committee intended to send this message to the Gaels program, they’re making a mistake.  As Jon Wilner writes and takes issue with Slive’s words, the vast majority of teams in Division I can’t take full control of their schedule.   

ESPN’s Doug Gottlieb said it best yesterday when he mentioned the Gaels did as much as they could in their non-conference to protect themselves against a weak WCC schedule.  As Gottlieb pointed out, they played at Kent State, a team that had won 20+ games for seven straight years, a neutral site game against San Diego State, another neutral site game against normally very tough (although not this year) Southern Illinois, a game at Mac Court in Eugene (again, in most seasons, one of the toughest places to play in the country), and a game against Providence.  If you looked at the schedule before the season started, you would think the non-conference schedule was a very formidable one and a slate of games that could help punch the Gaels a ticket.

Certainly, USC and Mississippi State winning league tournaments didn’t help St. Mary’s cause, but I do have a problem with Arizona getting in the tournament instead of the Gaels.  The Wildcats were given plenty of opportunities to win games outside of Arizona, and the only wins they could muster was their trip to Oregon.  I enjoy championship week because bubble teams in major conferences can assure a bid or, in some cases, eliminate themselves from NCAA conversation.  Arizona knew they were in trouble heading into the Pac-10 tournament, and they still laid down in the second half against Arizona State.  Granted, the Gaels performance was worse in the WCC Championship, but they had already won a must-win game against Portland the night before.  When these teams played games late in the year knowing their postseason chances were on the line, it was the Wildcats who folded much worse than Saint Mary’s, losing five of their last six games.       

If you put yourself in Bennett’s shoes, and analyzed all aspects of this NCAA debate, you would be very upset today.  He tried to do everything he could in his schedule to make sure the Gaels would be an NCAA tourney team if they didn’t win the WCC.  And, apparently, it’s still not good enough.        

• Gary Peterson says it’s a slap in the face and Chace Bryson checks in with the Gaels reaction. 

• This could make it tougher for Saint Mary’s to keep Bennett, as Ray Ratto writes.  Wilner reviews what happened to the Gaels.  

• Patrick Christopher and the Bears are excited for the tournament.  As Rusty Simmons writes, it’s a much different feeling for the Bear juniors, who have usually been disappointed this time of year.  My man-crush on Maryland’s Grievis Vasquez may have to be put on hold for this game.  Christopher, not Jerome Randle, should get this defensive assignment.  Randle can guard the shorter Eric Hayes.        

• Stanford missed out on the NIT, and settles for the College Basketball Invitational. 

• Wilner displays his Associated Press All-American teams and picks Blake Griffin, to no surprise, as his Player of the Year. 

• Jake Curtis reviews the tournament field. 

• Tim Kawakami is picking Memphis to take the whole thing. 

• The Warriors were embarrassed by Phoenix as both Stephen Jackson and Don Nelson were ejected.  Jackson is now likely to be suspended as he is over the limit on season technicals.   

• Kawakami wasn’t going to let this one slide as he mentions Monta Ellis’ –37 plus/minus on the night.  Kawakami also has some Baron Davis thoughts and a Warriors off-season checklist in his latest blog. 

• It was only a matter of time as the Sharks clinched a playoff berth with a win against Anaheim as Travis Moen scored the game’s lone goal against his old team.

• Nomar Garciaparra was in the A’s lineup and came out swinging, as John Shea writes in his A’s Beat.  

• Bob Geren confirms the A’s rotation is still wide open at this point. 

• Athletics Nation has Part 1 of an interview with Jason Giambi.    

• Brett Anderson is filthy, as Jeff Fletcher notes.  We have a leader in the clubhouse for my 2009 American League Rookie of the Year.  For all of the talk about Orioles catcher Matt Wieters, it is easier for a rookie pitcher than a rookie hitter to make an impact.  Anderson has a great chance, even if he doesn’t pitch in a major league game until late May.

• Fletcher has some fun as he combines the A’s and Giants rosters. 

• Aaron Rowand is not afraid to ask Willie Mays for advice. 

• Edgar Renteria needs to replace Omar Vizquel’s defense, as Dan Brown notes. 

• Bengie Molina still thinks of his father every day, writes Laurence Miedema. 

• San Jose is still the Giants territory, as covered in Henry Schulman’s Giants Beat. 

• Scott Ostler made up an award, MVBP, for the best player among the Giants and A’s. 

• The posturing is over and it looks like the Raiders are signing Khalif Barnes.  Jerry McDonald says this deal shows Tom Cable and Al Davis are on the same page. 

• The Raiders have made a few good picks after the first round, writes Patrick Patterson. 

• The 49ers receiving corps is one of the subjects in Matt Barrows latest Q&A.

• Finally, Samuel Lam thinks the team may be baiting others to trade up for the tenth pick.  

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SAINT MARY’S REVISED, One More 5-Star Pick, and Sunday Links

March 15th, 2009

I may have jumped the gun yesterday when I said I would be surprised if Saint Mary’s made the tournament.  I don’t want to turn into one of those TV honks that easily dismisses a non-BCS program like the Gaels.  This is West Coast Bias, after all.  Joe Lunardi has the Gaels in, which definitely counts for something (in fact, a lot).  Is Lunardi one of the most powerful men in college basketball?  In times like this, I think so. 

The Gaels may now be in, especially over San Diego State (who they beat) and Arizona (who gave way to USC in the Pac-10 home court advantage).  The Wildcats haven’t beat anybody outside of Arizona.  The key is Mississippi State not winning the SEC, which is a definite possibility considering Tennessee doesn’t have a point guard  (You need to be rooting for the Vols if you’re a Saint Mary’s fan.)  While I now think the Gaels are in, there is only one guarantee: 

We will hear the words, “body of work” and “eye-test”, at least 1700 times today.        

5-Star Plays     2-0

4-Star Plays     0-1

3-Star Plays     0-4

Maybe I shouldn’t have anything but 5-star plays… I’ll take Florida State plus 7 over Duke in a definite 5-Star Play.  The Seminoles have a sharp shooter like Toney Douglas, and even Chris Singleton is stepping up.  The dogs have been rolling in the ACC and the Seminoles may win this game outright.  I love the ‘Noles.  

3-star play – I like Mississippi State +5.  This is good for Gaels fans based on my past 3-star plays, but I hate Tennessee’s team. 

Jake Curtis thinks USC’s win might cost the Gaels.       

How long can the waiting game with Isaac Bruce last?  I love (well, not really) that Bruce, Jonas Jennings and Mark Roman won’t show up at he first minicamp.  Does it make sense to still have Roman and Jennings still on the roster?  Do the Niners really think they can receive any compensation for Roman?  I hope not.

Let’s hold back on any 49ers to Santa Clara talk, says Tim Kawakami.

Orlando Cabrera and Nomar Garciaparra will make their defensive debuts for the A’s today, writes John Shea.  

Randy Winn and Bengie Molina are well aware there isn’t much of a market for them, as Shea Writes. 

I don’t know how he helps them very much but the Giants are still interested in Ivan Rodriguez, says Henry Schulman. 

Randy Johnson is like a Duracell battery.  He keeps going…. and going… and going.  I’d rather have him pitch for the U.S. in the WBC than Jake Peavy’s sorry ass.  That’s for sure.  

Give the Sharks time, says Ray Ratto. 

Sorry, there is a limited number of links today.  We’ll be back with a vengeance tomorrow if the Gaels don’t get in the tournament… or pass the eye-test. 

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Despite the Win, it was a Bad Day for the Gaels

March 14th, 2009

Patty Mills looked much better than he did in the WCC tournament, as he scored 19 points in St. Mary’s home win against Eastern Washington.  The problem is that the teams Saint Mary’s hoped would lose all won yesterday.  A number of squads have improved their bubble chances, and a few are in line for automatic bids.

I’ll start with the ACC tournament where the underdogs were on center stage yesterday.  Maryland is in the semifinals after spanking Wake Forest from start to finish, and speaking of center stage, Grievis Vazquez was awesome in the limelight for the Terps.  Most players wait until after their season to declare for the NBA draft, but Vazquez did it in the middle of the ACC tournament, before their game against Wake.  Not many coaches would be happy about it, but Gary Williams’ team has been through a lot this year and they’re a tougher team for it.  Maryland and Vazquez are thriving right now.  Joe Lunardi (who has the Gaels as one of the first four out) now has the Terrapins in the NCAA’s, and I think, even with Duke and North Carolina alive, they still have a great shot to win the ACC tournament.

As for the other leagues, USC is a win away from the Pac-10 tournament.  Marques Johnson thinks they have a case if they don’t beat ASU today, but I disagree.  The Trojans have not won any significant games outside of Los Angeles.  Baylor is a win away from the Big 12 tournament, after beating Texas yesterday.  We’ll see if they can win four games in four days and clinch the league title.  While both USC and Baylor are underdogs, all it takes is one to win their game today to take another potential spot from the Gaels.  While Florida lost, Auburn was the team to beat them and the Tigers have improved their chances and may move ahead of the Gaels on the totem pole with another win today.  Last year, Georgia took away an at-large berth from somebody in the SEC’s last year, could it be Mississippi State this year?  In the Mountain West, San Diego State beat tournament lock BYU, and now the Aztecs may not even need to win tonight’s final to get in the tournament (although the Gaels did beat SDSU).  A Utah win could steal another spot.

The bottom line is with all of the upsets, Saint Mary’s chances have certainly worsened in recent days.  Factor in the fact they got blown out by Gonzaga in the WCC Final, and I’d now be surprised if the Gaels make the NCAA tournament.

TODAY’S NCAA PICKS AT BOTTOM OF TODAY’S BLOG

• Jon Wilner has more on the waiting game in front of Cal, St. Mary’s, and Stanford.     

• It was like the 2007 playoffs again, well not really, as the Warriors beat the Mavericks.  Brandan Wright returned, and it is imperative that Nellie live up to his word and try to go big the rest of the season.  Wright and Randolph should each be playing 30 minutes per game, and need to see the floor together so we can see the prospects of the pair succeeding together next year.   

• Andris Biedrins hurt his ankle again, although X-Rays were negative. 

• We’ve all heard “Manny being Manny”.  Now it’s “Nellie being Nellie” according to Jamal Crawford’s agent, who says that Nellie, not Crawford’s camp, is the one leaking news to the media, according to Marcus Thompson. 

• The NBA is in some trouble, writes Bruce Jenkins, who also gives some interesting baseball thoughts in his 3-Dot Lounge. 

• Lew Wolff issued a strong statement, basically saying the A’s have exhausted all efforts to keep the team in Oakland.  Tim Kawakami, and I agree, says this is basically a slap in the face to A’s fans.  Cam Inman also discusses the alienation of the fans.  The timing is ridiculous and Ray Ratto makes some fantastic points of just how unfair and blameless Wolff is carrying himself.  The A’s are making money and Wolff is being a weasel blaming Oakland when he hasn’t done much to help any new stadium plans.  When has Wolff been willing to throw his own money in the pot?  The team across the Bay can finance their own stadium, while Wolff wants Oakland to bend over backwards and fork over almost the entire cost.  This latest statement is an example of who Wolff really is: irrational and selfish.   

• Bobby Crosby is even trying out first base, writes Susan Slusser in her A’s Beat.        

• Dana Eveland is an opening night possibility, writes Jeff Fletcher and Curtis Pashelka.   

• Randy Johnson impressed the Giants minor leaguers, writes John Shea.  In his Giants Beat, he mentions Eugenio Velez’s nice game against the Rockies and that Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson will pitch today against the Padres.  Too bad, they aren’t pitching in the game against the A’s that is on Comcast SportsNet California today.     

• McCovey Chronicles projects Jonathan Sanchez… and the key is, of course, the walks. 

• Lane Kiffin is going to be in San Francisco on Monday for a deposition regarding his arbitration claim against the Raiders.  Yesterday, there was word that the team sent a letter to Tennessee in January disparaging Kiffin.  Al Davis needs to take some blame for Kiffin, writes Jerry McDonald.  Kawakami has the response from the Kiffin camp.  It is a little absurd that Davis couldn’t let this mess go, and just move on to more concerning matters of the organization.  No letter was needed as Kiffin has shown his true colors in his brief time as a Volunteer.      

• Michael Crabtree is this year’s Darren McFadden to the Raiders, writes McDonald.

• Former Brown Kevin Shaffer is the latest offensive tackle to hit the market, and David White says he makes sense in Oakland.  

• Matt Barrows points out that Andre Smith’s workout numbers aren’t much worse than other tackles that have been taken high in recent drafts.  Barrows also wonders why the team doesn’t re-sign Donald Strickland. 

• Barrows looks at Michael Lombardi’s latest mock draft and mentions the Torry Holt possibility. 

• Matt Maiocco gives us background information on the 49er regional scouts working under Scot McCloughan.  McCloughan, meanwhile, goes through a mailbag on the 49ers site.   

• Samuel Lam thinks the 49ers are going to be passing more than expected. 

• Spring practice is here for Cal and the Bears obviously need to get closer to finding a quarterback and replacing last year’s linebacking group, writes Jonathan Okanes.

• Evgeni Nabokov will play against the Kings tonight. 

• Patrick Marleau has word that the sun did still come up yesterday, writes Mark Emmons. 

• Derek Joslin and Thomas Greiss were sent to Worcester again. 

• A look at today’s NorCal Finals. 

Finally, I’m going to start making some NCAA basketball picks and continue through the NCAA Tournament.  Let’s give me an 0-2 record since I leaned towards Saint Mary’s and Stanford this week in their games against Gonzaga and Washington respectively.  I’ll count those as 3-Star plays.

Maryland +9 versus Duke - As you can tell from above, I really like Vazquez and Maryland.  They are playing so well and still think they are playing for an NCAA berth.  I can’t emphasize enough how dangerous this is during championship week.  Vazquez is also playing for a higher draft slot.  Right now, he’s #72 on Chad Ford’s ESPN Big Board, which is ridiculous considering he’s a 6-6 point guard.  If he’s there for the Warriors in the second round, I might be foaming at the mouth.  I think the Terps may win this game outright.  Maryland is a 5-star play. 

Florida State +8.5 versus North Carolina – Do you know the ACC underdogs were 4-0 yesterday?  It’s not getting the publicity that the Big East is receiving, but the ACC has been very entertaining.  Cal certainly knows the Seminoles are tough.  FSU plays a Carolina team that is likely without Ty Lawson.  Lawson helped steal a win in Tallahassee earlier this year.  I don’t know why Roy Williams would play him now since UNC knows they are a #1 seed.  As for the Seminoles motivation, they’ve lost 10 straight to Carolina.  I don’t like the Seminoles as much as Maryland, but I’ve got to make this a 5-star play as well.

Arizona State –1.5 at USC – You may have noticed I snuck the “at” in there.  The Pac-10 tournament is always a huge advantage for USC and UCLA.  Obviously, this is going to be a defensive game, and while Demar DeRozan scares me as he has taken his game to another level.  They key will be making big shots down the stretch, and ASU is much more proven in this aspect.  I always like the star players, like James Harden, in these types of games.  He’s fully aware the NBA scouts will be watching.  Saint Mary’s better hope that ASU wins this game.  The Sun Devils are a 4-star play.

3-Star Plays – Auburn +4.5 vs. Tennessee and San Diego State PK versus Utah.

Win or lose the results will be up tomorrow.

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Time for Oakland to Host the Pac-10 Tourney

March 13th, 2009

The Pac-10 tournament is never going to draw fans the way the Big East and ACC Tournaments draw attendance.  Watching the epic battle between UConn and Syracuse last night, one could tell how significant the Big East tournament is to the people in New York.  Sure there were a lot of fans representing each school, but also a lot of suits who left work and arrived at the arena just wanting to enjoy good basketball.  That’s a target market the Pac-10 has failed to attract, even though their tournament is in downtown Los Angeles.

Oracle Arena obviously doesn’t have any downtown flavor that LA and NY have, but at least there is a market of fans who watch basketball games simply because they enjoy good basketball.  Yes, this is more of a pro basketball area than college hoops, but the Bay Area thirsts for good basketball.  There would still be empty seats, but maybe not as many as the Staples Center displays every time there is a game that involves non-LA teams. 

The tournament has been in L.A. now for nine consecutive years, and the attendance isn’t improving.  In fact, it’s getting worse.  I went to the inaugural tournament at Staples in 2002 and while it was fun and is a nice venue, it’s not like the people filed out of the building to hang out in downtown L.A. after the games were over.  Most got in their cars and went to a million different places/hangouts as they always do in L.A.  That’s a major difference with New York, where a lot of people look to hang out in the town after the games, because the great location of the Garden. 

While there isn’t a locale in the Pac-10 that can match Madison Square Garden’s location, the Arena in Oakland can at least rival it in atmosphere and also has a strong tradition.  I’m not saying the tournament would be a certain success in Oakland, but it’s time to give the Bay Area an opportunity.  There have now been thirteen Pac-10 tournaments and only L.A. and Arizona have been represented as hosts.  Oakland is the central most location of the league and has a fan base that obviously loves basketball.  Plus, the Bay Area as a whole may likely be more tourist friendly than Los Angeles.  Oakland deserves its Pac-10 chance.                  

• Jon Wilner agrees that a change of venue may be necessary (although he mentions Las Vegas)

• Cal got off to another miserable start, and ultimately Jerome Randle’s defense hurt them late in their loss to the Trojans.  Monte Pool wasn’t impressed by the effort.   

• Washington took advantage of Stanford’s lack of depth to eliminate the Cardinal.

• Wilner reviews the Cal and Stanford losses. 

• San Jose State was physical but came up short in their WAC quarterfinal loss at Nevada. 

• As St. Mary’s prepares for Eastern Washington tonight, Ray Ratto knows they need a strong performance from Patty Mills tonight.  Jennifer Starks has more on the state of the Gaels.    

• Marcus Thompson discusses the interesting Nellie quotes about Monta Ellis and Jamal Crawford following the Nets win. 

• Brandan Wright is ready to go but the question remains if he will play tonight against the Mavericks. 

• Stephen Jackson has been hitting the weights this season like he never has before. 

• As Tim Kawakami again discusses the Warriors, he says Chris Mullin is now definitely a goner after the season. 

• The Sharks continue to follow wins with losses, as they lose in St. Louis.  Prior to the game, they lost Marcus Plihal to injury.   

• Fear the Fin reviews Patrick Marleau’s past postseasons.  They also take a look at the greatest Shark defensemen of all-time.   

• The discussion in Susan Slusser’s A’s Beat is Vin Mazzaro’s scoreless inning streak that now stands at nine. 

• While Orlando Cabrera is sure he’ll make his spring debut on Saturday, Nomar Garciaparra has no such timetable. 

• According to Curtis Pashelka, the A’s plan on stealing more bases this season. 

• Former Giants prospect Ben Copeland is getting a good opportunity with the A’s. 

• The A’s Landon Powell impressed Jeff Fletcher.

• Jason Giambi has fond memories of playing pickup basketball with Michael Jordan in the 1994 Arizona Fall league.   

• The City of Oakland is going to keep fighting to keep the A’s. 

• El Lefty Malo has a look at three Giants prospects who have had their ups and downs.  One of those prospects is Brian Bocock, who John Shea mentions in his Giants Beat.

• Chris Haft of sfgiants.com goes through his inbox and touches on Jesus Guzman, Buster Posey, and Eugenio velez among others. 

• McCovey Chronicles projects Randy Winn. 

• Bruce Jenkins thinks Dusty Baker may have a winner on his hands in Cincinnati. 

• As John Crumpacker writes, the 49ers still seem to like Andre Smith… and there is nothing linking the team to Jay Cutler. 

• Samuel Lam reviews the 49er offseason and the holes that still exist. 

• Ratto says Denny Green will be taking over a team full of AFC West and NFC West rejects.

• Darren McFadden sounds like he wants to start the 2009 season right now.  

• After the NFL Network did their thing, Jerry McDonald goes through his Top 10 Raiders of all-time. 

• In the high school boys hoops recap, Monte Vista ended Folsom’s 29-game win streak. 

• BearTalk reviews the Cal running backs in their latest spring practice review. 

• Finally, San Jose State football is simplifying the offense this spring, according to Laurence Miedema. 

Categories: Cal Bears, Golden State Warriors, Saint Mary's Gaels, San Francisco Dons, San Jose State Spartans, Santa Clara Broncos, Stanford Cardinal | No Comments

Gonzaga Displays Strength, WCB Prediction was Weak

March 10th, 2009

Based on last night’s WCC championship outcome, it’s safe to say that West Coast Bias won’t be starting a 900# gambling hotline anytime soon,  I’d say it was decided at tipoff, but Gonzaga was already winning prior to tipoff last night (thanks to Omar Samhan’s technical for dunking in pregame warm-ups), as they wrapped up their ninth WCC tournament championship in eleven years.  Obviously, as I wrote yesterday, I really believed the Gaels had a chance because Patty Mills’ 35 minutes against Portland allowed him to shake off some rust.  Apparently no rust was shaken last night, as evidenced by his 2-for-16 performance.  I did say that Gonzaga would be hard-pressed to match their 56% effort against Santa Clara and was vindicated when they shot only 55% against the Gaels.  

In all seriousness, what jumped out at me, was how out-muscled the Gaels were throughout this game.  Gonzaga is a team that clearly hits the weights more often than St. Mary’s, and with each loose ball and drive to the basket, it was the Bulldogs who seemed to win each battle.  Sure, it looked like a Bulldog home game with the crowd booing virtually every call (Come on Gonzaga, it’s not credible when you complain that often.) that went against the Zags and, as usual, they got away with a few, but St. Mary’s was a team that wasn’t able to match the tenacity that Gonzaga brought to the floor.  I’m not saying the Gaels weren’t physical but, when both teams are equally physical, and one is notably stronger than the other, the stronger team wins out.  When the Gaels would try to get to the hoop, Gonzaga would body up each player.  I can count at least three times that Mills, when making a move towards the basket, went sprawling to the floor, simply because his smaller frame wasn’t able to withstand the contact against a Jeremy Pargo, Steven Gray,or Matt Bouldin. 

Often, the physical Zags would induce the Gaels to shoot long-range jumpers.  Even Mills, when he couldn’t buy a bucket, pulled up on a odd-numbered fast break in the second half to shoot a three-pointer instead of using his laser quickness.  We all know Mills wasn’t his usual self in either WCC game.  For a wrist injury, he seemed to lack his usual spark and speed.  He tried to go to the basket a couple of times, with little success, but it wasn’t the same elusiveness that he had before the injury.  His outside jumper was way off.  It was missing so often, it makes all of us legitimately wonder if the long range shooting can come back in the next week and a half.  

And, will it be the NCAA’s or NIT after last night’s performance?  Going into the WCC’s, I said they needed to make it to the final, and have a close game in the championship. By getting blown out, and with Mills looking so timid (ESPN had particularly alarming video of Mills clearly protecting his arm, as he hit the floor in the second half), their chances are clearly up in the air.  Hopefully for the Gaels, the committee will look at last night’s result as Gonzaga being very good, as opposed to St. Mary’s being very bad.  Make no mistake, the Zags were very good and even admitted to playing their best basketball right now.  (One result that may stand in the way of St. Mary’s, however, was Gonzaga’s last nonconference result, a 68-50 blowout loss to Memphis in Spokane just a month ago.  It may not be fair, but the committee may wonder just how strong, or weak, the WCC is based on that recent result and how Gonzaga has destroyed the conference competition since.)  We’re going to have to see what transpires to the bubble teams in the major conference tournaments this week before we can further evaluate St. Mary’s chances.  They do get 12-17 Eastern Washington on Friday night, and any type of close game, is going to raise even more eyebrows from the committee.      

• Unfortunately, Mills’ parents, who made the long trip from Australia, didn’t get to see him play at his best.    

• Rob Calonge says that Cal’s NCAA seed can only improve if they win the Pac-10 tournament.  I disagree.  If they only beat USC and then lose in the quarters then their seed won’t improve.  But, if they beat UCLA in the semifinals, I can see their seed improving by one or two spots.  Beating UCLA, even in a Bruins “down” year, is still going to impress the committee, even with two previous losses to that same team.    

• Yesterday, Jerome Randle was named all Pac-10 second team and Patrick Christopher to the third team.  Jeff Faraudo also has information on former Bay Area prep stars who were named to all-league teams.   

• Jon Wilner revealed his Top 25 ballot. 

• Monta Ellis’ story is conflicting with the Warrior version.  Ellis says his ankle was never an issue and that he left the team to be with his mom.  When Nellie said that Ellis is going to be a point guard again, Ellis said he’s always been a point guard in games he’s played this season.  Ellis is clearly upset with the organization or else he wouldn’t be so contradictory to the team’s stance.  As if we needed it, it’s more proof of the Warrior front office mess.  A logical owner would make heads roll at this point (actually, much earlier than this), but Chris Cohan just sits back and watches it all unfold.  It again makes you wonder who’s in charge.  Does Nelson even have a superior?  He has managed to upset Ellis, Jamal Crawford, and Al Harrington this year.  And, this doesn’t count the small spat he had with Stephen Jackson.  Yet, he has the power of the new contract Robert Rowell stupidly gave him to fall back on, whenever things get shady.  He knows the Warriors can’t take it back, the team is too cheap to fire him, so he operates like a dictator.  Rowell also knows he can get away with just about anything, short of murder (although we don’t know for sure because he hasn’t tried it yet), and he still keeps his job.  Apparently Cohan, like Donald Sterling, is okay with his team being a laughingstock. 

• Gwen Knapp has more on this circus and what should be a moral to the story.  The only problem is the Warriors just concoct more stories, without any worry for morals.     

• Oh, and Corey Maggette and Jamal Crawford were absent from practice because of “travel complications”.   Can this get any wackier?  Travel complications?  I wish I could use that excuse on my boss.   

• In Marcus Thompson’s notebook, there is more on Ellis and Marcus Williams getting released as well as Nelson’s “private” meeting with Crawford.  Not that Cohan needs even further evidence of his inept front office, but his team just released a player (Williams) that they gave up a future first-round pick just nine months ago.  It was a ridiculous deal by Chris Mullin at the time considering no other team was offering more than a second-rounder.  

• Tim Kawakami is taking Rowell to task again.  This time, it’s for not following through with a promise he made at the time of the Monta Ellis suspension.   

• Adam Lauridsen has five questions for the Warriors for the rest of this season.   

• While Eric Chavez’s spring debut is pushed back, Bobby Crosby gets a crack at third base.  As I mentioned on Saturday, as a utility player, there is still an opportunity for Crosby to get at least 300-400 at bats this year if he stays healthy.  In this Susan Slusser story, she also checks in with John Dewan, of “The Fielding Bible”, who says shortstop Orlando Cabrera is a significant upgrade over Crosby defensively.     

• Jeff Fletcher displays some video skills as he gets the first footage of A’s phenom Michael Ynoa throwing in the U.S.  In Fletcher’s tidbits, he was impressed by Dallas Braden and Ynoa.  He also says Crosby feels he’s not ready to play second.  That’s fine for now, but he better be ready to play there in another week or two.  It shouldn’t take that long for a shortstop.  Omar Vizquel is already playing games this spring at second base for the Rangers.   

• Curtis Pashelka and Susan Slusser have more on Ynoa.  

• In Pashelka’s notebook, there is more on Braden’s solid performance and other A’s roster tidbits. 

• Henry Schulman with some Giants thoughts through this spring, including a warning not to get excited about all of the team’s home runs.  El Lefty Malo offers the same warning with a look of how the Giants are hitting the starting pitchers in the last week.  I’m surprised with all of the statistical analysis and evidence now in baseball, that there isn’t statistical support in spring training that is showing how hitters are doing against actual major league pitchers, and how pitchers are faring against major league hitters.  If Jesus Guzman is only 1-for-6 against probable major league pitchers, I’m not going to be impressed by his overall 7-for-18.  

• Bobby Howry had another dominant appearance yesterday and, as Andrew Baggarly notes, has been the most impressive pitcher according to Steve Holm.        

• Baggarly also says Eugenio Velez may be the second option in centerfield, spelling Aaron Rowand occasionally.  This sounds like Velez has a spot on the team locked up, but the Giants better make damn sure that Velez can handle centerfield.  It sounds like a shaky idea if you ask me.  If he misplays a couple of balls, there will be many groans from Giants fans.  It could be a surefire way for someone to lose a ton of confidence.  

• Kevin Frandsen still has eyes only for the second base job. 

• Giants fans would love to see Barry Zito cut down his walks this season, but he walked two yesterday.  Cutting down the walks is an area of emphasis.    

• A McCovey Chronicles projection of Fred Lewis. 

• Bay City Ball takes exception with the advice being given to Lewis. 

• Bay City Ball also wonders what happened to Willie McCovey’s numbers in 1964. 

• A heartwarming story from Joan Ryan about what Barry Zito and others have done for injured troops with the Strikeouts for Troops fundraising. 

• Ryan also visits with Rich Aurilia about the difficulty of handling the Dave Roberts release.  Roberts sent emails to numerous people in the organization and expressed his gratitude.  We didn’t need it, but it’s further proof how Roberts is such a class act.   

• Matt Barrows says cornerback Karl Paymah is coming in for a visit to 49er headquarters.  It could be another speedy player for Scot McCloughan.   

• Barrows also discusses the gamble the 49ers can be taking if they don’t sign a free agent tackle heading into the draft.  You don’t want to reach for a guy if the top three tackles are off the board at #10.  Not signing a tackle could be a smart move if they could find someone like Orlando Pace, who may eventually be released.    

• A look at the 49ers draft history since McCloughan and Mike Nolan took over in 2005. 

• Great America is for sale and the question is how this affects the 49er stadium hopes for Santa Clara. 

• For the Raiders, inactivity can be a good thing says Jerry McDonald. 

• Isaiah Ekejiuba has high hopes for the Raiders special teams again. 

• Rob Blake and Evgeni Nabokov aren’t make the Sharks trip to Minnesota.

• Despite their history, Kent Huskins and Travis Moen are accepted in the Sharks locker room.   

• Finally, Will McCulloch has a outlook of the NorCal playoffs. 

Categories: Saint Mary's Gaels | 1 Comment

Don’t Count Out the Gaels Tonight

March 9th, 2009

While Gonzaga cruised in a dismantling of Santa Clara, the St. Mary’s struggled in a win over Portland as Patty Mills made his return in the WCC semifinals.  The Bulldogs shot 56% and forced 22 turnovers, while the Gaels shot only 43% and struggled most of the night, until finally putting away the Pilots in the final few minutes.

In college basketball, of course, you can’t expect the same team, or teams in this case, to show up the following night.  A big reason for the Gaels struggles was getting used to the return of their best player, Mills, who obviously demands the ball.  Mills also was only 3-for-12 from the floor, primarily shooting jumpers, as nine of his FG attempts were from beyond the arc.  Gonzaga, meanwhile, was virtually flawless as nearly every key player, save for Josh Heytvelt’s 1-for-7, had a big game.  They’re a well-oiled machine and showed it to a nationally televised audience last night.  They’re not a 59% three-point team, however, and they will be hard-pressed to equal that effort tonight.   

Tempo also played a key role in both contests.  The Broncos had no chance keeping up with the high-paced Gonzaga attack.  Gonzaga would particularly score easily off of Santa Clara misses.  St. Mary’s, however, should have no such problem as they are clearly more athletic than the Broncos and a team that is more used to an up-tempo game.  The Gaels played a well-coached Portland team, that was disciplined enough to not get in any kind of a running game last night.  Every time the Gaels would try to push, the Pilots were quick to get back on defense and not fall into a running trap.  St. Mary’s enjoys taking their three-pointers in transition, and transition three-pointers were in short supply against Portland.   

In tonight’s championship game, however, both teams will look to run, and Patty Mills should be less rusty and much more comfortable considering he’ll have 35 minutes under his belt.  I’m not picking the Gaels to win but, if you’re a betting man, you should be taking the seven points.  The Gaels aren’t assured of anything when it comes to the NCAA’s.  You don’t underestimate a team playing with a potential NCAA berth on the line.  Look for a classic tonight in Las Vegas.           

• Gary Peterson has more on Mills’ return. 

• Jeff Faraudo, in his Pac-10 tourney notes, describes the tough matchup that awaits Cal in USC.  There is great parity in the conference this year, and it could lead to a wild tournament.      

• One reason the Pac-10 is a little down this year is because a lot of god players left for the NBA.  Ron Kroichick catches up with Brook Lopez and Ryan Anderson. 

• It’s looking more and more like Fred Lewis is going to hit third, and key figures in the organization feel he is ready for the challenge.  He’s not the godfather of this Giants leftfielder, but Willie Mays is still going to take Lewis under his wing.   

• In Andrew Baggarly’s notes, Bruce Bochy had a meeting with Emmanuel Burriss and thinks Jesus Guzman reminds him of Vinny Castilla. 

• Tim Lincecum is looking forward to his start Wednesday against Ichiro and Japan.  Lincecum also admits that he’s unlikely to play in the next WBC in 2013. 

• The Giants Baseball Blog with a spring breakdown, particularly looking at the open spots in the bullpen. 

• Veterans of the 1989 World Series, Will Clark and Carney Lansford now are trying to help the Giants youth.  

• While the Giants were kicking some A’s in Scottsdale, Oakland was getting a strong performance from 21-year old Brett Anderson in a win against Cleveland. 

• ESPN’s Keith Law was scouting the A’s/Indians game and was impressed by Anderson. 

• A plea from Athletics Nation to bat Jack Cust second instead of Orlando Cabrera.  The on base percentage differences between the two players fives this idea legs. 

• Susan Slusser catches up with former Athletic Kirk Saarloos. 

• Bruce Jenkins is again impressed by the savvy and creativity of Billy Beane. 

• Jenkins on why the Giants and A’s fans have it better than most other Arizona spring training teams: Location, location, location. 

• Fear the Fin and David Pollak try to explain what is going on with the Sharks during this rough stretch.  The Sharks obviously have enough games to head into the playoffs on a good note, but they need to start turning it around soon.  If not, players are going to have to deal with even more questions about “choking” than usual. 

• In his latest Q&A, Matt Barrows addresses Kentwan Balmer and the possibility of the 49ers drafting Pat White. 

• Kevin Lynch reviews the week that was in 49er-land. 

• David White on what the Raiders have lost this offseason on defense, what they’ve gained, and who they could possibly still sign.    

• Patrick Patterson is complimentary of the Raiders for not spending crazily this offseason. 

• Scott Ostler has some fun with his ideas for pampered athletes give back to the fans. 

• Finally, Will McCulloch has a rundown of the NorCal high school basketball playoff matchups. 

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Gaels Can Still Make Tourney Without Mills

January 31st, 2009

Patty Mills is going to miss the next four weeks because of two broken bones in his right hand, suffered in the first half of Thursday night’s loss at Gonzaga.  It was a first half where Mills showed he means as much or more to his team than any other player in the country. 

While this news is devastating, it is not season-ending.  Jon Wilner explains that the Gaels should make the NCAA Tournament as long as Mills is healthy in time for the tournament, because the committee will examine how good St. Mary’s was with Mills in the lineup.  Even though there haven’t been many marquee victories, the Gaels record and national exposure should be enough to impress the committee. 

Wilner makes very good points but it doesn’t mean that the Gaels can take the rest of the regular season off.  Nor will they.  I think St. Mary’s will still end the year with an outstanding record.  While Mills was missed in the second half against Gonzaga and his absence might have swung the outcome of that game, there were stretches where they didn’t play that poorly without him.  They also displayed great hustle under Randy Bennett, something that will mean a few extra wins without Mills.  Diamon Simpson and Omar Samhan are still very good players, but Lucas Walker also showed some good inside play.  Plus, the WCC just isn’t a very good league after the top two.  The Gaels may lose at Portland tonight, but their only three road games remaining are at Santa Clara, Pepperdine, and Loyola Marymount.   Games they should win, particularly the Southern California trip, without Patty Mills.  The regular season record will be a good one and, hopefully, Mills will be back in time for the WCC tournament to prove how tough this Gaels team is.         

• Rob Calonge previews Cal’s game at USC.  Bottom line:  Jerome Randle has to have a big game.  Sure, they have to cut down on turnovers and play better defense, but they can not win crucial games in this league without big efforts from their point guard.    
• Stanford hopes that something positive will finally happen in Los Angeles for their basketball program.    
• After their lack of defense being heavily criticized in a national television performance at Dallas, the Warriors showed some mettle at that end in a surprising win at New Orleans.  Ronny Turiaf was huge during particular stretches of this game.  I’ve criticized Chris Mullin plenty of times for bad moves, but Turiaf was an excellent signing.  For one, he’s one of the few Warriors who isn’t overpaid.  He’s also a perfect role player.  When Bruce Jenkins was discussing the lack of role players on the Dubs, he didn’t have Turiaf in mind.  Turiaf’s energy and hustle are traits a number of playoff teams would like to have on their roster.  While it probably will not be with the Warriors, Turiaf will win some titles in his career because he is a perfect 7th or 8th man in a championship rotation.      
• Tonight they play the Rockets and Don Nelson plans to play Ellis more at the 2-guard spot…. so much for the point guard plan.    
• Matt Steinmetz with some quotes from Nellie on KNBR… and on Nellie’s plans for his own radio show where he’ll speak with Warrior fans directly.     
• Mike Singletary and Jimmy Raye had conference calls with the media yesterday and they both mentioned the word “physical” multiple times.  Matt Maiocco offers a full transcript.     
• Cam Inman knows Jimmy Raye will only be as good as whoever the next 49er quarterback is.    
• Jason Jones wonders who the Raiders will use their franchise tag on, Shane Lechler or Nmandi Asomugha?  Am I missing something here?  You have to use it on the cornerback.  Even though he may want out and a huge long-term deal, it comes down to value.  Asomugha might be the best cornerback in the last 20 years.  (He is, in my mind)  There are a ton of teams that would love to have him and think they may be an Asomugha away from winning a title.  Even if he doesn’t want to play with the team next year, the Raiders should use it on Asomugha just so they could protect his value.  At worst, they get a first-round pick for him.  As for Lechler, they would receive maybe a third-round pick.  And that might be stretching it.    
• Roger Goodell addresses the 49ers and Raiders stadium issue.    
• Mark Purdy thinks the Niners and Raiders can learn a few things from this year’s Super Bowl participants.      
• The Sharks host the Blackhawks tonight as Nabokov looks to extend his streak.  They’ve beaten Chicago 13 consecutive times, and will try to make it 14 tonight without Dan Boyle.    
• Todd McClellan’s lineups are explained on the Sharks site.    
• A’s assistant GM David Forst answers fans questions at Bay Bridge Baseball.  He talks about 21-year old Brett Anderson being fearless.  It’s just a hunch, but I really think the A’s are expecting big things from Anderson this year.  The depth in the rotation isn’t there and we continue to hear about how competitive guys like Anderson and Trevor Cahill are.   
• Jason Giambi has some information to share with A’s pitchers.    
• ESPN’s Buster Olney still thinks the Giants are a player for Man-Ram.   
• McCovey Chronicles thinks they have the Giants depth chart and 25-man opening day roster figured out.  Spoiler alert:  Josh Phelps and Juan Uribe are both on it.      
• Joan Ryan talks to Bill Neukom about his visits to all of the Giants minor league operations.  Neukom is impressed with 16-year old Giants prospect, Rafael Rodriguez.   
• Finally Jenkins, in the 3-Dot Lounge, discussed the David Beckham American failure.

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