Analyzing Giants/Rockies Series – Coors Futility Likely Continues

August 21st, 2009

If you factor in how talented this year’s Rockies team is, the odds of the Giants doing anything better than a four-game split is very unlikely.  Predicting any single series is difficult in baseball (see Reds at AT&T), but the Giants, a bad offensive team, don’t match up well when they have to engage in slugfests with the opposition, and Coors Field is a park made for offense.  Even with the humidor, it’s still the best hitters park in baseball.  For the Giants to do well in this series, they are going to need some unexpected offensive performances.

The pitching matchups in this series are particularly unkind to the Giants.  I’ve made mention before that Bruce Bochy should have taken advantage of last week’s off-day by making sure Matt Cain will pitch in this series.  Despite a 2-0 record (the only two wins by the Giants in Colorado this year) and an 0.69 ERA at Coors Field this year, Cain won’t go in this four-game set.  That hurts.

Let’s preview each game: (more…)

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Giants/Mets Preview ***************** Friday, August 14th

August 14th, 2009

Giants (62-52) at New York Mets (53-61)  4:10 PST

Barry Zito (8-10, 4.40) vs. Bobby Parnell (2-4, 3.94)

Giants Notes

• Coming off first losing homestand (2-4) since May 11-17 (3-4 vs. Nationals & Mets)
• 23-32 on the road
• 16-12 vs. NL East
• In their last 15 games, the Giants are just 3-12 against the Mets (1-3 this year).
• The Giants are happy to not be playing in Shea (Just 4-13 since 2003, 11-26 since 1998)    

Mets Notes

• 30-25 at home
• 11-17 vs. NL West
• Have outscored the opposition 43-24 in the first inning at home
• .283 average with runners in scoring position
• Have struck out the fewest times in the majors.

Barry Zito

• 3-1, 2.32 ERA in last 5 starts since the All-Star break. 
• Opponents have hit .254 against him this year after a .270 mark last season.  
• In his career, Zito is a 29-18 with a 2.98 ERA in August
• In the last two years, Zito has pitched his best for the Giants over August (3.76 ERA) and September (3.71 ERA).  
• 4-6, 4.88 ERA on the road (11 starts)
• 2-1, 4.03 ERA career versus Mets.
• Below are Zito’s four starts vs. Mets:  

(more…)

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The 2009 San Francisco Giants: Definitely NOT on Steroids

August 12th, 2009

As much as I am annoyed by overly pessimistic fans, I must say that was a swift punch to the gut last night, and places a ton of pressure on Tim Lincecum today to shut down L.A.   As bad as this homestand has been, every Giants fan has to be a little bit nervous, even with the ace on the hill.  A loss, and many will be panicking before the longest road trip of the year.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m still optimistic.  I was just pumped up for this series, thinking the Giants were ready to beat L.A. on our home turf.  Losing the first two is so deflating, I didn’t even want to wake up this morning.  I can’t even look my dog in the eye anymore.  Gawd, I hate the Dodgers… and although, I’m not giving up on catching them, I’m disgusted because we were holding that card, the “6 of the 9 head-to-head games left at AT&T”, in our back pocket.   Well, now it’s 4 of 7, and the Giants HAVE to win today to have any long-shot at the division

And… Then… There’s the wild card.  “Wild Card” is a couple of dirty words that are tough to acknowledge for any die-hard baseball fan (McCovey Chronicles notes as much), but we do pay attention to it.  The Wild Card is like a drunk relative that no one wants to talk about or confront, but we know of their presence, and we know in the end, that drunk relative is capable of some very solid entertainment (or in the wild card’s case, a postseason).

Okay, maybe I’m reaching…  but I’m still optimistic.

On to last night’s notes: (more…)

Categories: San Francisco Giants, Uncategorized | Tags: 49ers, A's, Aaron Maybin, Alex Smith, Anton Peterlin, Barry Zito, Bill Hahn, Cal, Dallas Braden, Dodgers, Eugenio Velez, Giants, Hiroki Kuroda, JaMarcus Russell, Joe Torre, John Marshall, Justin Duchscherer, Kory Sheets, Matt Kemp, Michael Crabtree, Nonito Donaire, Pablo Sandoval, Raiders, Randy Wolf, Rich Aurilia, San Jose State, Stanford, Thomas Clayton, Thomas Howard, Tiger Woods, Tim Lincecum, Trevor Cahill, Willie Mays | 1 Comment

Giants/Dodgers Preview ************** Tuesday, August 11th

August 11th, 2009

Los Angeles (68-45) at Giants (61-51)  7:15 PST

Randy Wolf (5-6, 3.55) vs. Joe Martinez (2-0, 5.87)

Today is Pablo Sandoval’s 23rd Birthday

Giants Notes

• Have ensured non-winning home-stand for the first time since May 11-17 (3-4 vs. Washington and New York)
• 4-6 vs. Dodgers this year (2-2 at home)
• 38-19 at home (2nd best in baseball - Yankees)
• 19-20 vs. NL West (12 of the next 19 games are intra-division games)
• Hitting .316 in August (2nd highest in the majors – Washington)

Dodgers Notes

• Have lost 11 of their last 18
• Are coming off back-to-back series losses for the first time this year.
• 32-23 on the road (3rd best in baseball)
• 31-12 vs. NL West

Joe Martinez

• Making first home start of career and first appearance against the Dodgers. 
• Won first major league start last Wednesday in Houston (5 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, O BB, 4 K)

(more…)

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Giants/Dodgers Preview ************* Monday, August 10th

August 10th, 2009

Los Angeles (67-45) at Giants (61-50)  7:15 PST

Hiroki Kuroda (4-5, 4.44) vs. Jonathan Sanchez (5-9, 4.49)

Giants Notes

• Coming off first home series loss since June 15-17 (Angels sweep)
• 4-5 vs. Dodgers this year (2-1 at home)
• 38-18 at home (2nd best in baseball - Yankees)
• 19-19 vs. NL West (13 of the next 20 games are intra-division games)
• Hitting .316 in August (2nd highest in the majors – Washington)

Dodgers Notes

• Have lost 3 straight and 11 of their last 17
• Are coming off back-to-back series losses for the first time this year.
• 31-23 on the road (3rd best in baseball)
• 30-12 vs. NL West

Jonathan Sanchez

• 3-1, 2.76 ERA in last 5 starts (counting no-hitter). Opponents have hit just .144 against him during that time. 
• .229 batting average against this year. (Would be 8th best in the league if he qualified)
• 4-1, 3.26 ERA at home (8 starts)
• 0-2, 5.02 ERA career versus Dodgers.
• Below are Sanchez’s last four starts vs. L.A.:  

(more…)

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Giants/Reds Preview *************** Sunday, August 9th

August 9th, 2009

Cincinnati (47-62) at Giants (61-49)  1:05 PST

Aaron Harang (5-13, 4.52) vs. Matt Cain (12-3, 2.25)

Giants Notes

• Yesterday’s 4-2 win snapped six-game losing streak to the Reds. 
• 9-2 in rubber games
• 5 1/2 game deficit in NL West is closest they have been to the Dodgers since May 14
• On pace to win 90 games 
• Have won four straight day games and 6 of 7.
• 38-17 at home (tied with Yankees for best in baseball)
• 17-12 vs. NL Central

Reds Notes

• Have lost 9 of their last 10 road games.
• 23-32 on the road
• 7-14 vs. NL West
• Just 12-32 on the West Coast (0-12 at L.A.) over the last four seasons
• Have allowed a major-league high 96 first inning runs this year

Matt Cain

• Trying to join Adam Wainwright as the only 13-game winners in the NL.
• Win would also match career-high (2006).
• In Monday’s loss at Houston, Cain allowed more than 1 ER (4 in 8 IP) in a start for first time since June 26. 
• In his previous two starts following losses this year, Cain is 1-0 and has allowed 1 run in 13 innings.
• Team is 10-1 (8-0 in last eight games) in Cain’s starts at AT&T Park.
• Has allowed just 4 earned runs in his last 46.2 innings (0.77 ERA) at home.  
• 2-2, 4.18 ERA career versus Cincinnati.
• Below are Cain’s last three starts vs. Reds:  

(more…)

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Giants/Reds Preview ****************** Saturday, August 8th

August 8th, 2009

Cincinnati (47-61) at Giants (60-49)  1:05 PST

Bronson Arroyo (10-10, 5.10) vs. Barry Zito (7-10, 4.47)

Giants Notes

• Have now lost six straight games to the Reds (Last night was first meeting of 2009).  In their six losses, the Giants have allowed 57 runs!  (9.5/game)
• The last win against Cincinnati was April 25, 2008 (3-1, at SF)
• Surprisingly, only 5-8 in the next game after dropping the first game of the series. 
• 37-17 at home (tied with Yankees for best in baseball)
• 16-12 vs. NL Central

Reds Notes

• Last night’s win snapped an 8-game road losing streak
• 23-31 on the road
• 7-13 vs. NL West
• Just 12-31 on the West Coast (0-12 at L.A.) over the last four seasons
• Have allowed a major-league high 95 first inning runs this year

Barry Zito

• Since All-Star break, 2-1 with a 2.16 ERA over four starts.  In 25 innings, Zito has also struck out 21 and walked only seven.
• In his career, Zito is a 28-18 with a 2.98 ERA in August
• In the last two years, Zito has pitched his best for the Giants over August (3.76 ERA) and September (3.71 ERA).  
• Has really struggled in five career starts vs. Reds (2-2, 10.03 ERA)
• These are the three starts Zito has had as a Giant against Cincinnati:

DATE	AT	DEC	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
8-29-08	CIN	LOSS	3.1	7	8	7	2	2
4-27-08	SF	LOSS	3	7	8	8	3	1
7-3-07	CIN	—–	5	2	3	3	6	5

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Thursday Links

August 6th, 2009

No blog post today, but a plethora of links.

Giants

Joe Martinez and Eli Whiteside lifted the Giants, writes Henry Schulman.  Obviously, if you’re going to have a successful season, you’re going to have to receive those unlikely contributions… I can’t think of anything much more shocking than Whiteside’s titanic grand slam.  Bruce Jenkins with more on something special going on with this Giants team.     

Martinez received some good in-game advice, writes Andrew Baggarly.  

Ryan Garko took some advice from former teammate Mark DeRosa on adjusting to the NL. 

Being on the road also had something to do with Garko’s comfortableness, writes Schulman. 

At Inside Baggs, there is an interesting note about Prince Fielder possibly being upset with Jonathan Sanchez earlier this season when Sanchez drilled him with a pitch. 

Grant at McCovey Chronicles wants the Giants to prove him wrong. 

FanGraphs takes a look at Waldis Joaquin. 

(more…)

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Giants/Astros Preview **** Tuesday, August 4, 2009

August 4th, 2009

Giants (58-48) at Houston (53-53)  5:05 PST

Jonathan Sanchez (4-9, 4.81) vs. Felipe Paulino (2-5, 7.04)

Giants Notes

• 21-32 on the road (averaging 3.36 runs/game on road)
• Two runs or less in eight of last 13 road games (3 runs or less in 11 of 13)
• Have now lost five straight, and 7 of their last 8, at Minute Maid Park.  Still 21-12 all-time, however, as the Giants won first 11 at Minute Maid.  
• In their last eight games in Houston, Giants have scored just 17 runs.
• The last Giants win in Houston was May 17, 2007 (2-1, in 12 innings; Against Brad Lidge in the 12th, Randy Winn singled off the first-base bag scoring Pedro Feliz)
• 14-11 vs. NL Central
• 2-2 vs. Astros 

Astros Notes

• 29-25 at home this year
• 19-9 vs. NL West
• 42-12 when scoring 4 or more runs
• Have fourth best record in the NL since 2008 All-Star Break (95-77)

Jonathan Sanchez

• 0-8, 6.33 ERA on the road this year. (9-18, 5.69 ERA in his career)
• 0-2 on the road after a Giants loss. 
• Of his 17 starts, only four have been quality starts.
• In 13-0 Giants win, pitched 2 shutout innings in relief against the Astros on July 3rd.
• In 3 career appearances versus Houston, Sanchez is 0-2 with a 2.89 ERA.  
• Of his three appearances, only one was a start and it was last August:

(more…)

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It’s Time for Rich Aurilia To Go

July 21st, 2009

I love Rich Aurilia and what he’s done for the Giants organization.  I loved his unexplainable 37-homer season in 2001.  I enjoy his team-first attitude and the fact that being a Giant means something to him.  At some point, however, that only goes so far.  The Giants have to let go of Aurilia.  He’s not a major leaguer anymore.

Most of the season, the 37-year old Aurilia has stolen at bats from younger players who are more deserving.  In his 116 plate appearances, Aurilia has struck out 22 times and he’s produced an awful .544 OPS and a .240 wOBA (.340 wOBA is average, so .240 is terrible).  Aurilia is barely hanging on to a job, so I can somewhat understand him blaming his poor performance on limited at bats.  But, that’s not the case.  Aurilia is old, and he is just a bad hitter.  I don’t expect him to admit it, but the Giants are the ones who have to admit these shortcomings.

Defensively, Aurilia does a pretty good job.  He hasn’t played enough to really analyze it, but the UZR numbers on FanGraphs say that Aurilia has been slightly above average at first and third base.  However, I think we’ve seen enough of John Bowker to suggest that he can be okay at first base.  He certainly looks a lot more comfortable there than he did a year ago.  Bowker would be a downgrade defensively from Aurilia, but he is obviously more capable of bigger things offensively.

Still, Bowker will probably be the one to go, when the Giants bring up Ryan Sadowski for today’s start.  It’s a shame because I think the 2009 Giants should have been about getting as much at bats possible for the unknowns such as Bowker, Travis Ishikawa, Kevin Frandsen, and Nate Schierholtz.  The team has already failed to give Frandsen many opportunities.  Now, I worry, that the 2009 handling of Bowker will be go down as a missed opportunity.  When this season is over, we likely won’t know much more about Bowker’s major-league potential than we did when the season began.  And, it will mostly because of the team’s loyalty to an old, unproductive hitter like Aurilia.

(more…)

Categories: Uncategorized | Tags: 49ers, A's, Aaron Rowand, Buster Posey, Giants, Jason Giambi, John Bowker, Kevin Frandsen, Matt Holliday, Michael Crabtree, Michael Vick, Nate Schierholtz, Raiders, Rich Aurilia, Rod Woodson, Ronny Turiaf, Ryan Sadowski, Sergio Romo, Tim Lincecum, Tom Watson, Travis Ishikawa, Warriors | No Comments